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Possible frontal wave snow


Zelocita Weather
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14 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Not true anymore. Euro isnt what it was back in the day. 

So your saying the euros skill is less then it used to be? I highly doubt that. 
Too many things need to go right for this to be more then some wet non accumulating snow (in the city) I’ll take a slushy coating as I like all snow but keep expectations low 

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11 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

So your saying the euros skill is less then it used to be? I highly doubt that. 
Too many things need to go right for this to be more then some wet non accumulating snow (in the city) I’ll take a slushy coating as I like all snow but keep expectations low 

 How many times have the euro busted in the past few years ? It's not as good as it use to be.

1-3 is still a good call for the city . Hopefully the gfs is right with 2-4.

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Just my $0.02, but I don't think much of us get much accumulation, maybe an inch or two in the higher elevations. As far as I see, we hover around 31-35. And if we saw what happened last Monday, we need some decent rates to get accumulating snow. Add in that It will be near 60 on Tuesday, and the ground will probably still be warmer than the air, at least for the start of snow. 

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The 06 NAM backed off QPF and the 06z ICON has the band of precip. far SE with only minor accumulations for the coastal areas.  But the 06z UK and RDPS were still very wet with (likely) moderate snow accumulations.  The 12z NAM was again light on QPF.

Typical slight but locally meaningful model disagreement.  The radar and obs early Wed. morning off to our SSW will likely tell the tale.  

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19 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

With temps progged to fall below freezing, a rain to snow transition and precipitation continuing to fall, I think a major problem will be any untreated road surfaces freezing up eventually as the morning progresses. 

Yes, I think this storm is being underplayed.  1-3 inches on top of wet roads can be hazardous, most accidents happen during and just after light snowfalls.

 

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10 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said:

Seems like a pretty cold 2-4" or so for most of the region, some of the snow falls with 850s near -6/-9F

850s are cold but the surface is still relatively warm (outside of elevated areas) and there is even an elevated warm layer.  Soundings also show a low level unstable layer.  There could also be a period of sleet.  I really hope future model runs stop decreasing QPF.  Heavier intensity precipitation will really help mix down the colder temps aloft.

This could be a classic short duration, high intensity "surprise" snowfall.  The low expectation events are sometimes the most fun when they break right.

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