Zelocita Weather Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 GGEM, GFS, and NAM all have accumulating snow for most of the region Tuesday night into Wednesday with a post frontal wave... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Cmc was the 1st to show this earlier today . Euro and now the gfs jumped on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 8, 2019 Author Share Posted December 8, 2019 NAM now 2-4/3-5 pretty much region wide... This is precip that falls as snow, some of which is with 850s @ -6F or cooler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 33 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: NAM now 2-4/3-5 pretty much region wide... This is precip that falls as snow, some of which is with 850s @ -6F or cooler This can be a few inches for the city if the front can come through slightly faster with more precip. Nam was good. 1-3/2-4 for the city right now but it's not impossible for more. Too early yet to determine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Averaged frontogenesis from 800-600mb on the 12Z NAM is impressive Wednesday morning. That's how you get bands of +SN to develop. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Front came through faster on the gfs which resulted in colder temps but weaker precip. The heaviest precip was along the coast. Let's get Nams precip and gfs temps and we will be golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Surprised this thread is dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Gfs kuchera has a few inches for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 I think these setups along semi-stalled steep thermal gradients can be sneaky productive. They can yield bands of moderate snow training over the same area. More often than not they disappear beyond 48 hours out. But inside two days, from memory they often spread precip further NW than modeled (at least as modeled during the post 2000 period). Looks like short to moderate duration. And right now you have to favor areas with some elevation just inland - not necessarily far NW. The southern s/w will likely pump some more moisture into the deep south than expected, but how much of that translates up the coast is unclear. The southern s/w is dampening and not really involved as a local weather producer. It would be nice if it traversed eastward a little faster and we could buckle the 500mb flow slightly and get a bit more surface reflection along the coast. Of course depending on where the boundary sets up, that could halt the cold slightly too far NW of the coastal cities. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 NE guys are spoiled and in pack-protecting mode. So naturally they are not particularly excited about a modest threat book ended by likely rainers. But for this forum, especially this time of year, this is a legitimately trackable threat. For many many years in this area, 4" was considered a solid, plowable snowfall. And there is a chance, albeit low, to hit that threshold somewhere in the region early Wednesday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 43 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Surprised this thread is dead Probably because this will likely just be an event for colder surfaces. It's going to be in the 60s on tuesday with rain so roads are going to be VERY warm and wet. Very difficult to get much accumulation on roads that are retaining warmth and when temps are barely down to freezing. The last event I had almost 3 hours of 1 to 2 inch per hour snowfall rates from late morning to early afternoon with a temp of 33 degrees, but I only got a little slushy dusting on roads and didn't even have to shovel. You really need the temp to fall to freezing or below if roads and pavement are very warm. Right now this event is looking similar with temps likely falling to 33 to 35 during the snow wednesday morning, so it probably won't be a high impact event. That said, if the models are right we could get a couple inches on colder surfaces. It would certainly be very nice to see 1 to 3 inches on car tops and grass, so I'm definitely interested in this event. Any accumulating snow is interesting to me, even if it doesn't have much of an impact on travel. Of course northwest of our area where it will be colder, there's a better chance of seeing some accumulation on pavement. But I don't expect that to happen for central Jersey to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Probably because this will likely just be an event for colder surfaces. It's going to be in the 60s on tuesday with rain so roads are going to be VERY warm and wet. Very difficult to get much accumulation on roads that are retaining warmth and when temps are barely down to freezing. The last event I had almost 3 hours of 1 to 2 inch per hour snowfall rates from late morning to early afternoon with a temp of 33 degrees, but I only got a little slushy dusting on roads and didn't even have to shovel. You really need the temp to fall to freezing or below if roads and pavement are very warm. Right now this event is looking similar with temps likely falling to 33 to 35 during the snow wednesday morning, so it probably won't be a high impact event. That said, if the models are right we could get a couple inches on colder surfaces. It would certainly be very nice to see 1 to 3 inches on car tops and grass, so I'm definitely interested in this event. Any accumulating snow is interesting to me, even if it doesn't have much of an impact on travel. Of course northwest of our area where it will be colder, there's a better chance of seeing some accumulation on pavement. But I don't expect that to happen for central Jersey to NYC. First of all we are getting this snow during the night hours and pre dawn, secondly it’ll be coming down at a great clip, thirdly it hasn’t happened so we don’t know if it will indeed will happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 23 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Probably because this will likely just be an event for colder surfaces. It's going to be in the 60s on tuesday with rain so roads are going to be VERY warm and wet. Very difficult to get much accumulation on roads that are retaining warmth and when temps are barely down to freezing. The last event I had almost 3 hours of 1 to 2 inch per hour snowfall rates from late morning to early afternoon with a temp of 33 degrees, but I only got a little slushy dusting on roads and didn't even have to shovel. You really need the temp to fall to freezing or below if roads and pavement are very warm. Right now this event is looking similar with temps likely falling to 33 to 35 during the snow wednesday morning, so it probably won't be a high impact event. That said, if the models are right we could get a couple inches on colder surfaces. It would certainly be very nice to see 1 to 3 inches on car tops and grass, so I'm definitely interested in this event. Any accumulating snow is interesting to me, even if it doesn't have much of an impact on travel. Of course northwest of our area where it will be colder, there's a better chance of seeing some accumulation on pavement. But I don't expect that to happen for central Jersey to NYC. It's a wave along the front and crashing temps. This is a better setup for the coast than last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 19 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: First of all we are getting this snow during the night hours and pre dawn, secondly it’ll be coming down at a great clip, thirdly it hasn’t happened so we don’t know if it will indeed will happen! Agree. Alot of weary people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's a wave along the front and crashing temps. This is a better setup for the coast than last week. Right now most models are showing temps falling to about the same level as what we had for last week's event. But it's early and let's hope this continues to trend better. Maybe we can get a period of very heavy snow that causes major dynamic cooling. I don't rule out the possibility of our area getting more significant accumulations, but right now I believe it's more likely to be light accumulations mainly on colder surfaces. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Euro is coming in colder and nice for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Euro has a few inches in the city . It also shows a few inches towards DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Sref plumes are a general 3-5 inches across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Lot of precip whatever the hell it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Nice sounding from the 18Z NAM valid at 12Z Wednesday. Not sure why the best guess precip type guess is rain here, maps show snow and that sounding would also be (very wet) snow. Best lift is centered *just* below the DGZ (near 500mb), and there's an ~isothermal layer below that, so at least moderate snow is supported. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 24 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Nice sounding from the 18Z NAM valid at 12Z Wednesday. Not sure why the best guess precip type guess is rain here, maps show snow and that sounding would also be (very wet) snow. Best lift is centered *just* below the DGZ (near 500mb), and there's an ~isothermal layer below that, so at least moderate snow is supported. Nam looks nice for a few inches areawide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 I'm probably a little more worried about suppression than too far north with this. Either way temps very marginal but think if the precip is heavy enough it will stick. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Gfs has a few inches for the whole area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 47 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs has a few inches for the whole area Got a clown map Anthony? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Seems legit to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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