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Monday - Tuesday Rain/Convective Maker


weatherwiz
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An amplifying trough across the west over the region results in a building ridge downstream across the east coast. The result will be two days of above-average temperatures Monday and Tuesday. Of bigger interest is a pretty significant longwave trough moving through the northern Plains towards the Northeast Monday into Wednesday. Anomalously strong llvl flow through the troposphere will yield an unseasonably strong northward flux of moisture characterized by dewpoints climbing into the 40's and 50's. 

As the longwave trough approaches so will a cold front. Ahead of the cold front will be numerous areas of widespread showers and heavier downpours. Very strong dynamics look to be present with forecast models indicating an impressive 80-100+ MLJ streak developing around the base of the trough moving through the warm sector. While lapse rates won't be impressive (both mlvl and llvl) a moist llvl airmass should result in weak instability. The potential exists for a low-topped line of convection to develop ahead of the front which should move through a good part of the region. There may be two areas where some isolated damaging (convective) winds may occur; PA into NY/western New England Monday and then across eastern southern New England Tuesday. 

Mesoscale aspects are going to play some big influences at times; especially regarding where some of the heaviest rain occurs. Flooding doesn't appear to be a major threat, however, some local focal points of flooding may transpire. 

This will be another drawn out event...characterized by periods where the weather is quite unsettled and other periods where it is quiet. 

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I have to thank Steve for posting that link to the Ensemble Situational Awareness table a few weeks back...never came across it but it's phenomenal. Steve always has awesome links.

Anyways, PWATS are going to be quite high ahead of that cold front next week. I wouldn't be surprised to see a flood threat develop...especially with the snow pack.

naefs_2019120600_ne_anom_pwat_SFC_102.pn

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15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I have to thank Steve for posting that link to the Ensemble Situational Awareness table a few weeks back...never came across it but it's phenomenal. Steve always has awesome links.

Anyways, PWATS are going to be quite high ahead of that cold front next week. I wouldn't be surprised to see a flood threat develop...especially with the snow pack.

naefs_2019120600_ne_anom_pwat_SFC_102.pn

No problem Wiz. I literally have thousands of links that I should organize.  Crankyweather has the best organized web weather links I know of stormhamster.com

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

No problem Wiz. I literally have thousands of links that I should organize.  Crankyweather.com has the best organized web weather links I know of.

I'll have to check his site out!

If you could do so that would be incredible! Perhaps you could do something similar to what is done at 33andRain.com. Since I'm really trying to get back into long-range forecasting and understanding all the various teleconnections, forcings, etc I've discovered that site and they have an incredible database going. 

Perhaps you can just organize everything in a thread and it can be pinned somewhere and it's just links. (didn't they have something similar going on in the NYC forum a while back?...maybe they still do. Haven't ventured there in a while).

I try to save bookmarks and links but I do it extremely poorly and when I want to find something I can't lol 

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6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'll have to check his site out!

If you could do so that would be incredible! Perhaps you could do something similar to what is done at 33andRain.com. Since I'm really trying to get back into long-range forecasting and understanding all the various teleconnections, forcings, etc I've discovered that site and they have an incredible database going. 

Perhaps you can just organize everything in a thread and it can be pinned somewhere and it's just links. (didn't they have something similar going on in the NYC forum a while back?...maybe they still do. Haven't ventured there in a while).

I try to save bookmarks and links but I do it extremely poorly and when I want to find something I can't lol 

Site is stormhamster.com

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