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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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Many of the gefs members are colder than the OP..

About 15 of the members change us over by 0z while the OP is near 6z..

The members that have the earlier changeover have 6"+ while the ones that don't have a couple inches. 

Screenshot_20191213-181330.thumb.png.b00119b0982ce1cce32b55af452a83ac.png

GEFSNE_prec_ptypens_030.png

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Don Paul

Friday Evening Update: Soaking rain AM will give way to a transition to heavy, wet, & slushy snow in the afternoon, with increasing winds later in the day. Accumulations will be tied to elevation, with up to 4-7" by late in the day on the hills, and some higher terrain getting 8-11" by late evening. Even at lower elevations with marginal temps, 2-4" could fall by late in the day, with a few more inches in the evening. The strengthening winds will produce blowing snow and sharply reduced visibility by later in the day, causing travel hazards.

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4 minutes ago, tim123 said:

If it plays out like nam looking at 2 3 inch a hour rates for a few hours

Dude looks good for WNY especially Genesee valley out to ROC.

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20 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Many of the gefs members are colder than the OP..

About 15 of the members change us over by 0z while the OP is near 6z..

The members that have the earlier changeover have 6"+ while the ones that don't have a couple inches. 

Screenshot_20191213-181330.thumb.png.b00119b0982ce1cce32b55af452a83ac.png

GEFSNE_prec_ptypens_030.png

Some of those would be huge hits

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2 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Vort remember  march 1999. Kinda reminds me of that. 

Totally remember. Tons of rain, switch to snow, then 24" and a state of emergency in Monroe cty. 18"er 2 days later. Was that an anafront wave? 

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I truly believe this is gonna be big. All depends on changeover timing. Diurnal warming is negligible. Once it turns, it’ll accumulate. I expect warning amounts Rochester west. Bristol hills could see BIG totals. I’m also seeing enhancement signatures along the south shore in some of the ensembles. 
I love a late breaker. All said, it could fall apart nearly as easily. 

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1 hour ago, Syrmax said:

KBGM going with an inch or two (of snow) in the higher elevations sat night into Sunday a.m.  So there's that.  The added bone-us is they are thinking the mon night/Tues system will track further west than previously thought, yielding more non-snow precip than previously thought.  Here in the far north of their CWA...we'll see about that.

I think those rat bastads from Rochester and Buffalo are stealing our snow again, that's what I think!

 

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1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

I truly believe this is gonna be big. All depends on changeover timing. Diurnal warming is negligible. Once it turns, it’ll accumulate. I expect warning amounts Rochester west. Bristol hills could see BIG totals. I’m also seeing enhancement signatures along the south shore in some of the ensembles. 
I love a late breaker. All said, it could fall apart nearly as easily. 

If that LP spins up below 980 quickly, it'll be big. 

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Theres going to be a lot of rain and a lot of disappointed ppl on this board, I can see it now cause theres lots of warm air being drawn up from the S&E. The -4C and -6C isotherms are North of Lake Huron and are still moving North into SE Canada, just nuts!!

The one place that I can see getting perhaps a full fledged snowstorm is KBUF as well as our Brethren in Toronto so good luck to them. CNY is absolutely toast, lol, and we're sitting at 34F but that's gonna change later on this evening as temps start to head the other direction, in a hurry too, in Mid December. What an absolute kick in the chestnuts, No?

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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