WNash Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said: My mother often brings up a real warm Christmas when I was a very small child. I started trying to find the year she was referencing and I turned up this ridiculous monthly data from Buffalo for December 1982. Look at the first 6 days of the month! A high of 64, 68, 74, 68, 67, and 57. Thats freaking nuts. It then went on to hit 64 on Christmas day and 67 on the 28th. What an absolute scorcher or a month and yet we still managed to get almost 13 inches of snow and had 2 days with temps in the single digits. Thats weird wild stuff, what a rollercoaster ride. 982-12-01 64 47 55.5 20.5 9 0 0.00 0.0 0 1982-12-02 68 52 60.0 25.4 5 0 T 0.0 0 1982-12-03 74 60 67.0 32.8 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 1982-12-04 68 45 56.5 22.7 8 0 0.19 0.0 0 1982-12-05 67 45 56.0 22.5 9 0 0.23 0.0 0 1982-12-06 57 37 47.0 13.9 18 0 0.03 0.0 0 1982-12-07 44 32 38.0 5.3 27 0 0.00 0.0 0 1982-12-08 44 27 35.5 3.1 29 0 0.04 0.4 0 1982-12-09 31 7 19.0 -13.0 46 0 0.14 2.4 3 1982-12-10 35 7 21.0 -10.7 44 0 0.03 0.3 2 1982-12-11 34 19 26.5 -4.9 38 0 T T 2 1982-12-12 25 13 19.0 -12.0 46 0 0.01 0.2 1 1982-12-13 29 11 20.0 -10.7 45 0 T T 1 1982-12-14 42 27 34.5 4.1 30 0 0.00 0.0 1 1982-12-15 46 42 44.0 13.9 21 0 0.33 0.0 T 1982-12-16 49 21 35.0 5.2 30 0 0.49 0.1 0 1982-12-17 22 13 17.5 -12.0 47 0 T T T 1982-12-18 37 12 24.5 -4.7 40 0 0.00 0.0 T 1982-12-19 36 27 31.5 2.6 33 0 0.40 4.0 T 1982-12-20 32 28 30.0 1.3 35 0 0.45 4.8 5 1982-12-21 33 28 30.5 2.1 34 0 0.04 0.4 8 1982-12-22 33 28 30.5 2.3 34 0 0.01 0.1 7 1982-12-23 45 33 39.0 11.1 26 0 0.09 0.1 6 1982-12-24 56 45 50.5 22.8 14 0 0.02 0.0 T 1982-12-25 64 55 59.5 32.0 5 0 0.57 0.0 0 1982-12-26 55 29 42.0 14.7 23 0 T 0.0 0 1982-12-27 51 28 39.5 12.4 25 0 0.18 0.0 0 1982-12-28 67 36 51.5 24.6 13 0 0.06 0.0 0 1982-12-29 36 27 31.5 4.8 33 0 T T 0 1982-12-30 27 19 23.0 -3.5 42 0 T T 0 1982-12-31 33 18 25.5 -0.8 39 0 0.01 0.1 0 82-83 was a terrible El Nino year. My dad had started a factory that made fiberglass wicks for kerosene heaters, a market that had boomed in those days when home heating oil was widely used insanely expensive. That warm winter literally put him out of business! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 LR euro has something cooking up , actually all the LR guidance does..Cuts on the gfs and probably cuts on the European but it's there lol Better HP placement could yield positive results.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 We've picked up a few inches of snow today here in Northwest Onondaga county. Snow all day...with some heavier bands this afternoon showing off some nice-sized flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 Picked up about 4" of fluff here this afternoon, just a few flurries now. Love looking out seeing fresh white gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 Zonal PAC flow with the northern stream up in Canada equals a nice warm up.. Granted in upstate that means mid 30s, maybe catch a 40 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 Majority of the country has a southerly breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 Gfs trying to give us a little light snow Christmas evening.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 19, 2019 Share Posted December 19, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 Three month Outlook was updated today as well. EC to slight probabilities below normal (wny)..Avg temps is all we need JFM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 Gfs was quite active in it's LR with 5 storms from Christmas to the end of it's run. I Know it looks like cutter central but the gfs has strong HP after Strong HP to our north.. Timing of these features won't be known for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs was quite active in it's LR with 5 storms from Christmas to the end of it's run. I Know it looks like cutter central but the gfs has strong HP after Strong HP to our north.. Timing of these features won't be known for a while. I still think some of those storms will become snowstorms for us...question is when will the CWA see it's first true lake effect set up that lasts for days? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 17 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs was quite active in it's LR with 5 storms from Christmas to the end of it's run. I Know it looks like cutter central but the gfs has strong HP after Strong HP to our north.. Timing of these features won't be known for a while. U can see on the gfs these storms have no choice but to eventually go east due to the confluence.. Hopefully that trends stronger/better positioned as we get closer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2019 Author Share Posted December 20, 2019 Just got back and have 4” on the ground with some decent piles on my road. Had to be 3” of new snow just today. Wintry scene out there. Long range looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2019 Author Share Posted December 20, 2019 Highest total was 15” off Erie and 17” off of Ontario. Rochester with the highest total in Monroe county as usual, definitely measuring wrong there. Can’t get highest total in county every event, at least make it a little less obvious... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2019 Author Share Posted December 20, 2019 50 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: U can see on the gfs these storms have no choice but to eventually go east due to the confluence.. Hopefully that trends stronger/better positioned as we get closer.. Yeah but the pacific is terrible it’s a jet of warm air. Definitely an outside chance of an event if everything works out perfectly but overall low percentage pattern. Also literally zero chance of lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah but the pacific is terrible it’s a jet of warm air. Definitely an outside chance of an event if everything works out perfectly but overall low percentage pattern. Also literally zero chance of lake effect. Yeah we have had a few winters this decade where a progressive, Pacific-influenced pattern dominated, and they were very poor snow seasons, far below the seasonal average. It’s depressing to think that the 27 or so inches that have fallen so far this season could represent half of the total seasonal snowfall at kbuf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2019 Author Share Posted December 20, 2019 36 minutes ago, WNash said: Yeah we have had a few winters this decade where a progressive, Pacific-influenced pattern dominated, and they were very poor snow seasons, far below the seasonal average. It’s depressing to think that the 27 or so inches that have fallen so far this season could represent half of the total seasonal snowfall at kbuf. I mean I'm at 33" and it's not officially winter until Dec 21st. Right on track I would think, going to need a few decent LES events to catch up. The next 10 days look blah and its close to peak LES season. At least the lake should remain warm. Just got back from star wars, the end of a 40 year series. Can't believe its over. I walked outside the theater to some of the prettiest snow ever. Nice band moved through from Ontario. Just goes to show you, get the cold and we will almost always finish above normal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2019 Author Share Posted December 20, 2019 Christmas looks very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2019 Author Share Posted December 20, 2019 The same thing happened last year. Most ninos feature warm Decembers. I expect an above average snowfall for Jan and Feb. I still like my call for 5-10% above normal which would put Buffalo at 100-110" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 20, 2019 Author Share Posted December 20, 2019 Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 38. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 42. Monday Sunny, with a high near 43. Tuesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Christmas Day Cloudy, with a high near 40. Definitely some good dog walking weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 38. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 42. Monday Sunny, with a high near 43. Tuesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Christmas Day Cloudy, with a high near 40. Definitely some good dog walking weather. Good mailman weather too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 GFS has a big dump of arctic air for the New Year. Of course it follows this with another cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 Thought that was an error till I noticed every station in northern Oswego is below zero... We cleared out nicely last night.. Forecast low was 4.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 Some improvements in the Pacific by the end of the month.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 U gotta look at the surface too bro.. HP at surface funneling cold air. The image u posted surface temps are in mid 20s lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 Like I mentioned the other day max temps in winter only last a few hours, this isn't summer where it's 80 all day.. Euro shows exactly this..Few hours around freezing or just above than back into the 20s.. Wny is a warmer climate so I really can't speak for that area.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 Im glad someone said it. I won’t name names but there was a lot of hype about lake effect potential and upgrading to warnings, blah blah blah. And as usual, Monroe county came in with an anemic amount of snow. To be honest I think we got about 1.5 inches of total snow combining the arctic front and lake effect. You can’t just hype every storm. You lose your validity. Additionally, the Rochester ASOS is out to lunch. 10 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Highest total was 15” off Erie and 17” off of Ontario. Rochester with the highest total in Monroe county as usual, definitely measuring wrong there. Can’t get highest total in county every event, at least make it a little less obvious... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 We just miss some Christmas evening light snow on the European.. Track goes right over us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 20, 2019 Share Posted December 20, 2019 Canadian also has snow during this time frame but more like boxing day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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