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20 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Euro over the next 6 days..

Looks good for the higher elevations of the tug for Saturday night-sunday time frame, plus whatever it has for today..

Early next week system is a miss just to the SE which majority of the models show at the moment..

80BEDD3D-3458-489B-B039-53D8572DDBE1.thumb.png.09319fb37efd07a4fb80693c01690756.png

Yes unfortunately the models are not in our favor over the next 2 week's.

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51 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I would count last year as high magnitude. They get quite a few events but it's tough to get a major storm there. A consistent SSW wind setup is extremely difficult for LES. 

This was the storm. It was quite a bit worse than I thought in North Buffalo/Northtowns.

Lake Effect Summary - Jan 24 2019 to Jan 26 2019 - Storm Total Snow Map

 

There was a huge cutoff NW of the airport. It really missed the area hit hardest in November 2000 and October 2006.

 

 …ERIE COUNTY…

     Colden 2.4 ENE           23.5
     Boston 2.5 NE            22.3
       Colden 1 W             21.6
   North Boston 4 ESE         21.3
    Buffalo Airport           20.0
   Cheektowaga 2.7 NE         20.0
     Boston 1.5 NE            18.8
  East Aurora 2.7 SSE         18.6
      Eden 1.4 SSE            16.7
          Wales               16.6
    West Seneca 0.4 E         15.5
  East Aurora 0.1 ENE         15.1
   West Seneca 2.3 NW         15.0
   Williamsville 2.7 E        15.0
Clarence Center 0.2 ESE       14.5
      Elma 2.7 WSW            14.2
  West Seneca 1.6 WNW         13.7
    Springville 5 NE          13.7
      Buffalo 3 SE            13.5
  East Aurora 1.0 ESE         13.5
    Hamburg 0.4 WSW           13.2
   Elma Center 0.7 SE         12.8
     Marilla 3 SSW            12.2
 Clarence Center 0.9 N        10.5
    Glenwood 1.5 SE           10.0
      Akron 0.9 NE             9.6
   Cheektowaga 2.4 NW          8.0
    Kenmore 0.3 ESE            7.5
  East Aurora 3.4 NNE          7.5
    Blasdell 1.5 SSW           5.6
     Kenmore 0.8 NW            3.3
    Tonawanda 3.1 NE           3.0
    Amherst 5.4 NNE            1.9
   Tonawanda 1.5 NNE           1.0
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50 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Amen, I grew up in North Tonawanda.  It was brutal always being just a handful of miles away from pure insanity.  The Christmas week storm from 2001 was particularly rough to watch from the side lines (and we even got 2 feet or so, just nowhere near what Buffalo got).  Fortunately, for most people thats a huge selling point to living in the North Towns, most people hate snow.  

From Black Rock up through North Tonawanda -- really, the east bank of the Niagara River -- is truly a lost cause as far as snowfall goes. There's just not a heading that can give that stretch of the metro area good lake effect.

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3 minutes ago, WNash said:

This was the storm. It was quite a bit worse than I thought in North Buffalo/Northtowns.

Lake Effect Summary - Jan 24 2019 to Jan 26 2019 - Storm Total Snow Map

 

There was a huge cutoff NW of the airport. It really missed the area hit hardest in November 2000 and October 2006.

 


 …ERIE COUNTY…

     Colden 2.4 ENE           23.5
     Boston 2.5 NE            22.3
       Colden 1 W             21.6
   North Boston 4 ESE         21.3
    Buffalo Airport           20.0
   Cheektowaga 2.7 NE         20.0
     Boston 1.5 NE            18.8
  East Aurora 2.7 SSE         18.6
      Eden 1.4 SSE            16.7
          Wales               16.6
    West Seneca 0.4 E         15.5
  East Aurora 0.1 ENE         15.1
   West Seneca 2.3 NW         15.0
   Williamsville 2.7 E        15.0
Clarence Center 0.2 ESE       14.5
      Elma 2.7 WSW            14.2
  West Seneca 1.6 WNW         13.7
    Springville 5 NE          13.7
      Buffalo 3 SE            13.5
  East Aurora 1.0 ESE         13.5
    Hamburg 0.4 WSW           13.2
   Elma Center 0.7 SE         12.8
     Marilla 3 SSW            12.2
 Clarence Center 0.9 N        10.5
    Glenwood 1.5 SE           10.0
      Akron 0.9 NE             9.6
   Cheektowaga 2.4 NW          8.0
    Kenmore 0.3 ESE            7.5
  East Aurora 3.4 NNE          7.5
    Blasdell 1.5 SSW           5.6
     Kenmore 0.8 NW            3.3
    Tonawanda 3.1 NE           3.0
    Amherst 5.4 NNE            1.9
   Tonawanda 1.5 NNE           1.0

I will fight that Williamsville number all day long...if you look at the brown spot right by the and just north of the 90 is east Williamsville...and that is 18 to 24 inches.

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6 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I will fight that Williamsville number all day long...if you look at the brown spot right by the and just north of the 90 is east Williamsville...and that is 18 to 24 inches.

Yeah, there's something wrong with that measurement. I drove out to Clarence on Main Street the day after that storm, and that storm put two feet down for a good stretch of that drive. I'm also surprised by the Clarence Center number, but I'm sure there was a huge cutoff to the north just as there was to the northwest.

I made notes in my Buffalo Blizzard book, but I can't find it right now. In any case, if I remember correctly, the big LES events that hit North Buffalo and the northtowns as far west as Kenmore and Sweet Home were early season events, for example early December 1995, late November 2000, and October 2006. I'm not sure of the mechanism, but I recall from Don Paul that early season strong LES often can have significant cyclonic curvature. I'm assuming that plays into the drought -- not enough strong early season events on the 240-245 flow.

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43 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Euro over the next 6 days..

Looks good for the higher elevations of the tug for Saturday night-sunday time frame, plus whatever it has for today..

Early next week system is a miss just to the SE which majority of the models show at the moment..

80BEDD3D-3458-489B-B039-53D8572DDBE1.thumb.png.09319fb37efd07a4fb80693c01690756.png

It’s gonna be a big one. Love to see it trend a couple clicks cooler (obviously). 

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The model consensus is for low pressure to track from central PA to
northern Vermont Saturday to Saturday night. As the low passes to
the east and northeast, cold air advection will move into western
and north central NY. This system is moisture laden so as colder air
moves into the region, snow showers are likely from west to east
through Saturday night. Minor lake enhancement expected through
Saturday night as lake induced instability is lacking with 850mb
temperatures only falling to around -6C by Sunday morning. An inch
or two of snowfall accumulation is possible mainly at higher
elevations east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario
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Not one flake and I doubt we see one, lol! I absolutely despise BN Novembers and next yr I hope its balmy right through Thanksgiving, then bam, an Arctic Plunge accompanied by Squalls then true LE kicks and lasts for 3-4 days straight. Their happening less and less as each yr passes, wtf!

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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