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43 minutes ago, schinz said:

I am sitting up at 1800 Feet on the Chautauqua Ridge at Peek N Peak wondering what my potential is here for the band as it sinks South later today?  Amy ideas?

You'll definitely get hit later, but the band will not be as intense as it was near Buffalo. It's also moving quickly and shear will impact it later today. 

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The sun has come out at north campus. It took about 30 mins for the band to transit. There was a lot of wind, so it's hard to eyeball amounts, but it looks not more than an inch. So three inches for the whole event... in line with Buffalo NWS's low-end 10% probability. It's hard as hell to get sustained LES from downtown to the north.

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1 minute ago, WNash said:

The sun has come out at north campus. It took about 30 mins for the band to transit. There was a lot of wind, so it's hard to eyeball amounts, but it looks not more than an inch. So three inches for the whole event... in line with Buffalo NWS's low-end 10% probability. It's hard as hell to get sustained LES from downtown to the north.

We had a good hit this past January when we received 65" at the Airport and almost 30" during the one event...( yes KBUF was just under 2 feet but I'm sticking by my measurement) so it's possible and as BW mentioned earlier all models look good for some more LES next week. 

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Some high gusts

...Cattaraugus County...
   Delevan                 37  1225 PM 12/11  NYSM

...Chautauqua County...
   Dunkirk                 43  1200 PM 12/11  Buoy
   Jamestown Airport       38  1204 PM 12/11  AWOS
   Fredonia                37  1205 PM 12/11  NYSM
   Dunkirk Airport         36  1038 AM 12/11  ASOS

...Erie County...
   Buffalo                 47  1212 PM 12/11  NOS-NWLON
   Buffalo Airport         41  1234 PM 12/11  ASOS

...Genesee County...
   Batavia                 36  1220 PM 12/11  NYSM

...Jefferson County...
   Cape Vincent            38  1150 AM 12/11  NYSM

...Niagara County...
   Niagara Falls Airpor    37  1138 AM 12/11  ASOS

...Ontario County...
   Clifton Springs         41  1220 PM 12/11  NYSM

...Wyoming County...
   Warsaw                  36  1220 PM 12/11  NYSM
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34 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

We had a good hit this past January when we received 65" at the Airport and almost 30" during the one event...( yes KBUF was just under 2 feet but I'm sticking by my measurement) so it's possible and as BW mentioned earlier all models look good for some more LES next week. 

There's a heading from through KBUF to Clarence that can get a good sustained connection, and that often can hit downtown and parts of the east side. Genessee Street in Buffalo seems to be close to the northern limit. North of that, bands seem to be transient. Last January was the best LES I've seen since I moved here seven years ago, and that storm topped out at about 15" in the northern third of the city and northtowns (depending on if you consider the airport and vicinity part of the northtowns).

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1 minute ago, WNash said:

There's a heading from through KBUF to Clarence that can get a good sustained connection, and that often can hit downtown and parts of the east side. Genessee Street in Buffalo seems to be close to the northern limit. North of that, bands seem to be transient. Last January was the best LES I've seen since I moved here seven years ago, and that storm topped out at about 15" in the northern third of the city and northtowns (depending on if you consider the airport and vicinity part of the northtowns).

North Buffalo, Kenmore, Tonawanda, Northern Amherst are snow wastelands. That's a fact, just gotta accept it. Their annual is probably 70" per. 

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5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

North Buffalo, Kenmore, Tonawanda, Northern Amherst are snow wastelands. That's a fact, just gotta accept it. Their annual is probably 70" per. 

Oh no doubt, but looking at the Buffalo Blizzards book, it seems like a truly significant LES hits the northern part of the city every 5-7 years on average. The last storm of a high magnitude that had long residence north of downtown was October 2006, so it has been quite a drought.

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Just now, WNash said:

Oh no doubt, but looking at the Buffalo Blizzards book, it seems like a truly significant LES hits the northern part of the city every 5-7 years on average. The last storm of a high magnitude that had long residence north of downtown was October 2006, so it has been quite a drought.

I would count last year as high magnitude. They get quite a few events but it's tough to get a major storm there. A consistent SSW wind setup is extremely difficult for LES. 

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8 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

 


Wow yeah it sure does! That’s a classic spot for bands to stall out... southern half of West Seneca, OP, Hamburg, EA... Very interesting!!!!


.

 

This happens quite often when it drifts south. I think it has to do with the topography of the coast along with the southern portions hitting the boston hills. This was not modeled well. 

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16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

North Buffalo, Kenmore, Tonawanda, Northern Amherst are snow wastelands. That's a fact, just gotta accept it. Their annual is probably 70" per. 

Amen, I grew up in North Tonawanda.  It was brutal always being just a handful of miles away from pure insanity.  The Christmas week storm from 2001 was particularly rough to watch from the side lines (and we even got 2 feet or so, just nowhere near what Buffalo got).  Fortunately, for most people thats a huge selling point to living in the North Towns, most people hate snow.  

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46 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Amen, I grew up in North Tonawanda.  It was brutal always being just a handful of miles away from pure insanity.  The Christmas week storm from 2001 was particularly rough to watch from the side lines (and we even got 2 feet or so, just nowhere near what Buffalo got).  Fortunately, for most people thats a huge selling point to living in the North Towns, most people hate snow.  

Where'd you grow up in NT?

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