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12 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

 


I don’t think they tweak the hour by hour runs at all as you’ll hear the say pretty often that they think the model is off because of this or that... If they could add their own input they would. Not sure about the specifics but I know back in the day 4 use to mention using the RPM as the data set for their graphics. Now they just refer to it as their in house model. It would make sense as the RPM runs off the ARW which had similar output on the 12z run. The map Todd used was not the hi res output they showed earlier in the day so in my opinion his map could be more user input adjusted vs just straight computer output.


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thanks for the response. A lot of things in weather seem to shrouded in mystery, or seems that way to amateur who finds this stuff interesting so I'm always thankful for information :)

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17 minutes ago, schinz said:
Looking at this radar loop, does that band continue into NW PA and SW NY?  Is there no radar in that area?
 

 


It does. Cleveland radar is pretty much blind for most lake effect once it’s onshore into NW PA. Need to look at Buffalo radar. After the whole Erie PA snow gate scandal of 2017 the Buffalo radar angle was lowered to try and better capture lake effect bands over that area.

cf7e4486b6269445f50da33950f458ec.gif


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Well one more set of runs soon and then it’s go time. Like the forecast call so far from BUF. Should be an easy 3-5” everyone in metro to get in. Maybe a spotty 6” out near the airport. I think the biggest impact will be the band plowing back south in the afternoon. Wouldn’t be surprised to see that brief burst be 3”/hr+ rates. Also concerning are the winds that will come along with the bands return. Gusts are now up to almost 50 mph along the shoreline. I think there will likely be a 30-60 minute time frame of blizzard like conditions around the metro. Could also see BUF throwing up a snow squall warning for the trip south to cover this brief but impactful band.

416de0f730beda9374cbcbb602009b92.jpg


BUF AFD-
The band may be briefly strong
during the midday/full fetch time period with aided lift from
the upper level trough. The mobility of the band will limit
total snow amounts, but it`s important not to underestimate the
impact a brief intense snow band can have.


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5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

The band looks like it's going to fly right by the metro this morning in about the next hour and settle into Niagara and Orleans counties for the majority of the morning. At that rate I'm seeing maybe an inch or two at best. 

Relax TS!! Lol. Band just started here within the last half hour and we already have an inch no joke. This thing is ripping HUGE flakes straight down with no wind. It’s unreal how quick it’s adding up. At this rate we will have 3 inches or more before the band lifts north and then we still have it’s trek southward this afternoon! Just enjoy it, I haven’t seen such nice flakes in a long long time and there’s nothing better than when it comes straight down with no wind! 

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Definitely close to 2” an hour!!!

At 615 AM EST, A band of lake effect snow producing snow fall rates
of 1 to 2 inches per hour is located from Angola and Hamburg inland
across the Boston Hills and western Wyoming County. This band of
moderate to heavy lake effect snow will move north into the Buffalo
Metro area by 7 AM. Travel conditions will deteriorate quickly from
south to north across the metro area as the morning commute begins.

This includes Interstate 90 between exits 57A and 48A, Route 219
from Orchard Park to Boston, and Route 400.
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1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Ripping out there this morning! Wish I would have woke up a little earlier. Does look like the band is moving north to fast and is going to end up on the north side of the metro by 8am.

b1ecb756fcaf8f3430eb0bf0b9cf2760.gif


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It has been snowing here but still just a dusting...it appears the heavier returns are right near the lake shore up to few miles inland...

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I guess Fulton now does well with a west wind lol

They are forecast more than me tonight lol

Snow. Areas of blowing snow before midnight. Low around 19. Breezy, with a west wind 18 to 23 mph decreasing to 8 to 13 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

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47 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

The band looks like it's going to fly right by the metro this morning in about the next hour and settle into Niagara and Orleans counties for the majority of the morning. At that rate I'm seeing maybe an inch or two at best. On the flip side hopefully the euro is right about next week's storm. 

8qhjZ3N_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&f

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