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Upstate/Eastern New York


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So it looks like we will start off December with a decent snowstorm for the central and especially eastern areas of NYS.

image.png.246c4ddf8427315432fe4b03170f1240.png

Looks like 1-3" across WNY, 3-6" for Rochester, 6-12" for Syracuse.

image.png.444f8db9f3d2841f00894de23eb8c6d6.png

Following this storm there is an interesting period on Weds where a lake enhanced setup may affect Buffalo and give them a few inches.

On an initial SW flow, lake effect snow is expected to begin near
Buffalo/Watertown Tuesday night. It likely will not be until early
Wednesday that lake parameters maximize...with Lake Induced EQL
rising to near 7-9K feet, and moisture increasing in a lowering snow
dentritic growth zone that the bands of snow will become moderate.
By this time, with the upper level shortwave crossing our region,
expect the bands of snow to be now east of the Lakes, across the
Southtowns/Boston Hills and the Tug Hill region. Here on Wednesday
we will increase PoPs to likely for lake effect snow.

Looking further out....

A very up and down pattern upcoming. Lots of warm ups and cool downs. No real sign of any arctic air in the forseeable future. We get some pacific help with a +PNA but we go positive for the NAO and AO with the PV on the other side of the globe. The models have been highly volatile though, so this doesn't mean much. I think weeks 2 we get a decent torch according to the CPC. Hopefully the pattern changes but it looks like we're heading into a warm MJO cycle.

image.thumb.png.303d18ba76831d49fbcc4fad118a7a77.png

image.thumb.png.a3eff5c45242e4bf2eb2bc85a16aabaa.png

 

 

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Nice write up. Thanks for what you do!

Anyway, read the early am disco from BUF, you’d hardly know there was a storm. They’re either gonna look like geniuses or morons. I give them credit for sticking to their guns- can’t be easy, especially Wayne NE.

 

Sunday night...the initial surface low will weaken in the vcnty of
the Southern Tier...while the secondary low will become better
organized off the Mid Atlantic coast. This will encourage weak cold
advection over our region to change any remaining mixed pcpn to some
light to occasionally moderate wet snow. Much of the forcing for the
pcpn Sunday night will come from being in the proximity of the upper
low and from local orographics...although areas east of the Genesee
Valley could experience a little lift from there nose of an
easterly LLJ. This will largely depend on how far off the coast
the secondary storm takes shape. In any case...most areas should
pick up an inch or two of snow Sunday night...with 2 to 4 inches
possible form the Finger Lakes eastward.


 

 

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7 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Yeah ice is accreting pretty rapidly out there. There’s a really solid glaze on everything and it’s coming down pretty good with the temp holding at 27 degrees.  

Isn't .25"+ considered ice storm warning criteria? Or maybe .5"?

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1 hour ago, Luke_Mages said:

24 degrees and rain here just outside of buffalo. Nice glaze forming. :(

Yeah this poses a huge problem...just ran to the grocery store and I would've been far better off taking the hockey skates...everything and I mean everything is iced up. This could get bad for areas buffalo north.

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