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Happy Birthday Old Man Winter storm obs


Ginx snewx
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52 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s 2 no fails for big snows in SNE. 
#1 Deep easterly inflow and Ginx posted it days ago 

#2 ULL south of LI.

Whenever those two are both present there will be BIG totals and if one or the other is present there will be minimally a moderate snowfall. Remember that that that were making love to little snow model runs 

There's some truth to this....I rememeber talking in an exchange with dendrite a couple days ago about the obscene mid-level inflow. I was starting to worry about a firehose and that we might have some monster totals. We never totally got the Mar 2013 look (though for a time it started to look like that last night), but we didn't need to get it to have a big storm because this moved so slow and had a better wrap-around ML structure this morning than that storm.

Never give up when you have a potent ULL going at that latitude underneath us.

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18 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

that's funny that Fiskdale only got 3.5". We used to live there (sturbridge) and recall getting low end totals sometimes similar to the Valley, but they got screwed this time

I looked at the Public Info statement - that observation was from 12/1.  Dumb they published a map with that in there - shoulda tossed it.

 

Side note - I grew up in Sturbridge, weird.

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I thought the principle features where handled fine by guidance. Like Will said, you had prolonged erly flow for hours and hours which is usually how we end up with prolific numbers. Throw in some fronto to help consolidate and lift the WAA coming in and poof. For a 3 day total, I can't say I am surprised by the numbers. I think biggest surprise was day 1 near Albany. Runner up last night down near CEF to Hubby...but that was shown on near term guidance. For me, the extent this came west last night was classic on guidance when look at H7 lift and RH. QPF as usual ranks last on models. They do better with the synoptic features. I was half expecting a more wall of moisture just east of me, but that never happened. It was sort of broad and spread out. Not as intense.

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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's some truth to this....I rememeber talking in an exchange with dendrite a couple days ago about the obscene mid-level inflow. I was starting to worry about a firehose and that we might have some monster totals. We never totally got the Mar 2013 look (though for a time it started to look like that last night), but we didn't need to get it to have a big storm because this moved so slow and had a better wrap-around ML structure this morning than that storm.

Never give up when you have a potent ULL going at that latitude underneath us.

It’s a great tried and true method of forecasting snow 

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Winds below 5000ft are NW so you'll have beam drift. IOW, that band will inch east, but also...radar will show it west of you when it's actually steady snow at your location.

I can vouch for this....looks like I'm on east edge, but snowing over inch/hr

18.5"

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4 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

But the NWS forecast wasn't great. I stayed under a WWA and got 10" of snow. P/C forecast was for 3-5" later upgraded to 4-6" Visibility was near zero at times last night with heavy snow.

I'll be curious to see what if anything falls out of post-event review, because I'm pretty on board with the messaging was awkward with this one. Seems like we would have been better off if headlines didn't exist at all and we just told people what would happen. 

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1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Storms like this are great. The snow lingers. It continue to pile up. It seems like it will just last all day. But then it stops. And when it does. It's sad. 

I wish it would snow forever.

Diurnal timing such that we escaped a day of minor melt that the west got.

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18 minutes ago, Greg said:

Man look at that radar from NH! That band coming down right around Route 3 and Route 93, I'm right in the crosshairs at this swath/band!:snowing:

My old and new homsteads may make a run at 20" in this band....this is right where the death band in March 2018 was..93 nailer

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