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Happy Birthday Old Man Winter storm obs


Ginx snewx
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Was North of Holyoke, MA last night driving back to coastal Fairfield County, CT and WOW, What a sharp gradient N to S in CT!  1-2 feet north of Hartford. Few inches south of city and about a coating to an inch on coast! Fairfield county has been absolutely ripped off last few years. Almost like becoming the new norm. It’s sad..
 

Congrats to our neighbors to the North! Enjoy it. Snow breeds snow, and it’s early!

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10 minutes ago, Greg said:

There must be a lesson to learn here on when and how to read models. Medium Range vs. Short Range and when to use which one for the best analysis.

The lesson is to couple model analysis with meterological intellect. We had a huge upper low passing beneath sne, and while guidance occasionally remained east with best forcing right up until go time, we know that that usually verifies a bit west of guidance. We also know that heaviest precip is normally somewhat west of modeled qpf max.

Models are much better at resolving low level forcing, but still struggle tremendously with forcing in the mid levels.

I'm glad I went big and nailed it. I remember insisting to scooter yesterday that we should get it, however I got so nervous last night that I finally just set the alarm for 4am and crashed. That was almost as good a call as the forecast. Lol

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The lesson is to couple model analysis with meterological intellect. We had a huge upper low passing beneath sne, and while guidance occasionally remained east with best forcing right up until go time, we know that that usually verifies a bit west of guidance. We also know that heaviest precip is normally somewhat west of modeled qpf max.

Models are much better at resolving low level forcing, but still struggle tremendously with forcing in the mid levels.

I'm glad I went big and nailed it. I remember insisting to scooter yesterday that we should get it, however I got so nervous last night that I finally just set the alarm for 4am and crashed. That was almost as good a call as the forecast. Lol

Well last night in particular models had like 1” QPF not even 24 hours earlier. I’m not talking about the stuff yesterday. I mean last night. It was definitely more tame, but a good event. 

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There’s 2 no fails for big snows in SNE. 
#1 Deep easterly inflow and Ginx posted it days ago 

#2 ULL south of LI.

Whenever those two are both present there will be BIG totals and if one or the other is present there will be minimally a moderate snowfall. Remember that that that were making love to little snow model runs 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

It nailed the band in west central/central CT last evening Spot On however.  So it did well here.  

 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It did well there. But for whatever reason did not like to wrap snows back in.

Well, it was triggered by two completely different things. That's probably why.

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