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Happy Birthday Old Man Winter storm obs


Ginx snewx
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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Very recent rad trends are unilaterally indicating some weakening ... Maine to NH into eastern MA are all dimming brighter returns and shredding is more prevalent.   Probably signifies the wind-down is near if not already began. 

The occlusion process is underway.

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8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Hopefully Jeff in that

Apologies for meanness, but I hope not, at least until noon or later.  Family heading home to SNJ should get to LEW about 11:20 or so, were entering I-95 in Augusta at 10:40 and I advised them to stay on that road rather than take the usual 295 thru PWM.

In between bands atm, not quite to our 1st inch.  Grandkids enjoyed the feathers we saw around 9.

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Hopefully ( though a challenge ...) the denizens of social weather-related media and concentrated neurosis ( just kidding relax - ) can put this whole event into perspective and ... heh, 

 

wow

This is Dec 2 and 3 we are talking about here.  I say 18" spot maxes in 1986 from an upstart NJ Model clipper bomb ( which led off a blase season in whole ) back whence... and that was November 11 or 15  ( Will ? )   ... But, in general, having this kind of pervasive coverage of 12+" totals, and even getting the coastal towns some love to boot this early, is pretty fantastic.  

There's really is no room for grousing if we got anything over climo signaling... I know it doesn't alleviate the unpleasant realization that two towns over might have scored bigger totals... but that will pass. Give it time.  This is a pretty fantastic ... If one wants a 'front-loaded' winter, this isn't a bad start... Let's just hope it's not like the Patriot's 8-0 start that is likely to end in disaster.  Ha

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11” Total.  The Worst Number.  I need a Foot.  NEED it for the Stats.  

 

Do we count this as 1 storm though?  Like factually?  

 

6.75”, Compacted to 2.5”, then 4.25” Part 2 = 11”, But its compacted to Under 6”.  CLASSIC Storm where if you do not use the 6 Hour Rule you’d Never know what you have.  

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57 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yup ... and NWS made that very clear in their discussion prior to the event, that they were taking that philosophy/tact with this thing... 

Having said that... I don't know about the wisdom in/and public perception of having done so personally - not that you or anyone asked.  PR and idiocracy factors don't really align with their level of precision and adherence to time-spans like that.  Silly really -  

No ...the average person doesn't judicially judge these sort of things anywhere close to those internal aspects, ...and actually, the vast majority don't read their tech/reasoning discussions either.  They may not like hearing this, BUT, they need to consider how these advisories and warnings are consumed. More so at that end - but that's just imho.   NWS does not exist for their own precision - they exist paid for by the public ;) 

To be fair, those time requirements work much of the time. However, this is/was an unusual circumstance that requires(d) a mutation of those requirements - this was a warning by totality of event scenario, sorry. More so than the other line of reasoning and though it is just my opinion, the PR angle should have been considered like the former.  Civility isn't ready nor responsible enough for their precision.  Maybe some day...  

Nevertheless, a lot of towns in Hartford and Tolland counties under WWA picked up over 6" in the 12 hr overnight period.

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The ALB area QPF storm total amounts are insane.  A large area of 2.0-3.0” water with even a couple stations exceeding 3” QPF for the storm.  

Very rare to get that much QPF in an “all-snow” storm that far from the ocean.  

I honestly can’t remember anything like that for total QPF around the Capital District in a snow event.  Even March 2001 was less than 2” water I think. 

The town next to my parents, Altamont had 2.64” water and 27” snow.  Albany City 2.28” and 23.9” snow.

That area of ENY seemed to miss the higher ratio stuff you guys further east got last night.  

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19 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Almost 6in here for round 2

I guess I was wrong :thumbsup:

No way I would give up on a dynamic system like this tracking south of me. Boston often finds ways to cash in on those. The short range models were complete garbage. There were models giving my area over 10” and others practically none. The radar and common sense were much more useful. 

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