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December Banter 2019


George BM
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23 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

What year was that southeast Canada 4-6" of freezing rain event.  Pics I remember were freaking incredible of trees and power polls bent over . 90s I believe 

January 1998. The Great North American Ice Storm. North Country of NY State up into Quebec were demoralized from 2-6" of freezing rain accretion. Trees in northern NY state are still bent over in spots to this day and will forever be that way from the weight of the ice. At the height of the storm, freezing rain fell into air as cold as 14 degrees. 

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17 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

January 1998. The Great North American Ice Storm. North Country of NY State up into Quebec were demoralized from 2-6" of freezing rain accretion. Trees in northern NY state are still bent over in spots to this day and will forever be that way from the weight of the ice. At the height of the storm, freezing rain fell into air as cold as 14 degrees. 

I think if it rained on me with an air temp of 14 F, my head would explode.

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9 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

So, looking at the GEFS, I pray that the signal it is showing doesn't actually come true. Good lord. It's got the look though for a legit ice storm out this way. PV rotating down north of the Lakes with strong surface ridge nosing down the lee of the Apps with the height rises. Add a piece off the Pac to cut underneath. That's an ice storm lovers dream. Dang man

The more I look at it, the more impressed I am. Heck, @Eskimo Joe would approve of this run. Wow. And that look at H5 is CLASSIC for a southern plains Ice storm. 

Stop looking at the Good For Shit model and its ensembles. It's not happening.

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

Excuse my pissy mood this morning as a Vikings fan you have the ball down 34-30 momentum clearly on your side less than 4 minutes to go and then womp womp womp 4 and out. Deflated...go Ravens I guess

I'm a Skins fan.  At least you have a good team.  The only hope i have is #FireBruceAllen 

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6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Excuse my pissy mood this morning as a Vikings fan you have the ball down 34-30 momentum clearly on your side less than 4 minutes to go and then womp womp womp 4 and out. Deflated...go Ravens I guess

No hate here. Wilson helped secure the ass kicking I gave @yoda in our fantasy head to head

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1 hour ago, frd said:

 

 

Most excellent ! 

I totally agree, minute details in weather do matter, that is what makes this hobby so enjoyable.    Next, I need snow, a lot of it please. I want to dust off the snowshoes. :sled:

 

 

His ideas wrt the IOD and the effects of the standing wave in the Indian Ocean are interesting and may have merit.  If his call busts it could be for a completely different reason because no one factor has autonomy over the pattern.  But that’s why you don’t spend a week insulting everyone else and insisting they are dead wrong. Then you look like a clown when things don’t go your way. And they will eventually not go your way in this game. In fairness so I’m not a hypocrite I learned that lesson the hard way, and probably a time or two more than I should have.

 

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13 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

LOL more long range busts. It's amazing how confident and self-assured some people get with these forecasts when they are basically guessing. Some folks need to learn to hedge a bit more.

My father in law used to tell me when we were laying tile when in doubt grout...I'm thinking the same for the long range stuff

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

His ideas wrt the IOD and the effects of the standing wave in the Indian Ocean are interesting and may have merit.  If his call busts it could be for a completely different reason because no one factor has autonomy over the pattern.  But that’s why you don’t spend a week insulting everyone else and insisting they are dead wrong. Then you look like a clown when things don’t go your way. And they will eventually not go your way in this game. In fairness so I’m not a hypocrite I learned that lesson the hard way, and probably a time or two more than I should have.

 

Very true, he knows his stuff, but that does not give one the excuse to act like an ass to others . Being humble has advantages.  

Eating crow is on his menu today. 

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Stop looking at the Good For Shit model and its ensembles. It's not happening.


I wasn’t saying it was... I was saying the look verbatim is how you get ice storms down here. It was a crazy run. And as a meteorologist, you never throw away an ensemble run and run with one model. That’s dangerous. Closer in, then we can start giving weight.


.
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