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WINTER 2019/2020 BANTER


NYCSNOWMAN2020
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2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Last few years we've had record warm Jan/Feb months but cold Nov & March. This is a repeating pattern. 

I'm on the cold/snowy March train. You'll start seeing it on the models by Feb 15-20 as wavelengths change due to seasonal effects.  

Even if flowers are out?

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1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Possible, however there's a lot less cold this year.   This has been an incredible torch

The EPO will be flipping negative and that will initially favor the west. 

The effects of a -PNA diminish substantially after Feb 20 and I could see the west & east both stay cold. 

Blocking will likely build too. 

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1 hour ago, blizzard24 said:

those that say winter is over will regret that very soon . im still forecasting l least two blizzard between now into march with many big snowstorms for sne area and i 95 area. i dont use mjo is joke changes every day .

Why only Two?

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At least Philly can brag that they beat 72-73. 

Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30
Missing Count
1 1973-04-30 T 0
2 2020-04-30 0.3 86
3 1998-04-30 0.8 0
4 1950-04-30 2.0 0
5 2012-04-30 4.0 0
- 2002-04-30 4.0 0
7 1931-04-30 4.1 0
8 1919-04-30 4.5 0
9 1951-04-30 4.6 0
10 1992-04-30 4.7 0
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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Last few years we've had record warm Jan/Feb months but cold Nov & March. This is a repeating pattern. 

I'm on the cold/snowy March train. You'll start seeing it on the models by Feb 15-20 as wavelengths change due to seasonal effects.  

I’m a big fan of the repeating pattern idea as well. Last February the vast majority of the board had thrown in the towel only to see that snow blitz. It’s entirely possible that something similar happens again

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3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Not saying it’s a lock, just that it wouldn’t be surprising. You could have taken last winter and made that your forecast for this winter and blown all the pro Mets out of the water for winter forecast

could go for 3 clunkers in a row and forecast it for next year.  

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The stats below are for NYC, KNYC and represent the number of 10 inch or above, 6-9.9 inch and 6 inch or above snowfalls for each month since records have been kept the last 151 years. There have been 193 storms of 6 inches or above and 65 of 10 inches or above in this time frame.

Although December at 37, does have more 6 inch snowfalls then March (31), there have been more 6 inch snowfalls from March 1 forward (38) than in December. NYC's best month for large snowfalls and snowfall in general is historically February, not the last few years though.

No. of 10 + inch snows by Month
1…....November
12…..December
16…..January
25…..February
9…....March
2…....April
65….Total

No. of 6-9.9 inch snows by Month
4…......November
25…....December
32…....January
40…....February
22…....March
5…......April
128....Total

No. of 6 + inch snows by Month
5…......November
37…....December
48…....January
65…....February
31…....March
7…......April
193....Total

Here's the average snowfall per month at Central Park since January 1991 through January 2020, the period that the next 30 year averages will be calculated on. Right now its 30.3 inches, they need 12.9 more by December 31 to get a 30.0 inch average for the period.

October......0.1
November...0.5
December...4.9
January......8.7
February...10.5
March.........5.1
April...........0.4

Total......30.3

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some years with the biggest snowfall coming in March or April...

year...…..snowfall date

1887-88...20.9"...3/12-14

1891-92.....8.0"...3/17-18

1895-96...12.0"...3/15-16

1905-06.....6.5"...3/13-14

1913-14...14.5"...3/1-2

1914-15...10.2"...4/3-4

1914-15.....7.7"...3/6-7

1923-24.....8.4"...4/1

1940-41...18.1"...3/7-8

1955-56...11.6"...3/18-19

1957-58...11.8"...3/20-21

1958-59.....5.5"...3/12

1959-60...14.5"...3/3-4

1967-68.....6.6"...3/1

1975-76.....4.2"...3/9-10

1979-80.....4.6"...3/13-14

1980-81.....8.6"...3/5

1981-82.....9.6"...4/6

1983-84.....6.9"...3/8-9

1991-92.....6.2"...3/18

1992-93...10.3"...3/13

1997-98.....5.0"...3/22

1998-99.....4.5"...3/14-15

2006-07.....5.5"...3/16

2008-09.....8.3"...3/1-2

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6 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I have to respectfully disagree.

The name Snow88 has not been working weather wise for NYC metro for the past 2 winters.  MJO812 is still new, he needs to give it more time.

Lol. When he was metfan we had all those snowy winters in the 2010’s. 

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17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Maybe next winter

I changed it for good luck but I guess it's not working .

Since the current cold season is so full of wintry weather excitement we could have a suggest a new name for Anthony exercise. I suggest ( with a nod to the bottom of Unc’s posts) ...... SWPRO...... As always .....

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