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WINTER 2019/2020 BANTER


NYCSNOWMAN2020
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2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Trust me man , people are all over social media.

Think we have to lose Dec AND Jan before its fair to question the season.      For me even if we have a great few weeks post Feb 1 the season would be tainted beyond repair when you lose those two months.   In '12/'13 we had about 6" total by 2/1 .. then about 40" the rest of the way.   Can never rule a turnaround like that out - but doesn't necessarily save winter by all standards.

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49 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Trust me man , people are all over social media.

The first half of January =/= the remainder of winter. As noted in the past, one has to be wary of Social Media. Exaggeration is commonplace (big snowstorms, extreme cold, stratospheric warming events, and now claims about an impending demise of winter) on Social Media. Even as January appears likely to be warmer than normal on average, that does not mean that sustained cold with opportunities for snowfall can't develop later in the month or that February could not feature above normal snowfall.

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I’m one of the biggest warmanistas here, and even I’m confused at all the ship jumping so soon, at least wait a few more weeks lol. It’s late December, our snowiest month on average is February, anything can happen between now and then. Our winters are too erratic to ever get comfortable with any pattern.

With that being said, I hope all the ship jumpers are proven right, I hope this winter will be terrible for cold/snow lovers. We’re a couple of days away from mid-winter and the dandelions are back out in full force.

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59 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The first half of January =/= the remainder of winter. As noted in the past, one has to be wary of Social Media. Exaggeration is commonplace (big snowstorms, extreme cold, stratospheric warming events, and now claims about an impending demise of winter) on Social Media. Even as January appears likely to be warmer than normal on average, that does not mean that sustained cold with opportunities for snowfall can't develop later in the month or that February could not feature above normal snowfall.

I think the opportunity for cold/snow will reappear once again in late Feb and March. That's been the general theme for years now. 

Maybe if we're lucky it'll happen earlier in February when climo is still favorable.

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Maybe but the cold is coming.  It depends how long it will stay.

Some cold will come in after Jan 5 as MJO skirts phase 7-1, but it'll be transient. Afterwards all signs point to a big eastern ridge, which means January is probably toast. 

It's possible we'll be chasing 01/02  or 11/12 going into Feb though I think another late winter comeback will save us from that bleak outcome.

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17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think the opportunity for cold/snow will reappear once again in late Feb and March. That's been the general theme for years now. 

Maybe if we're lucky it'll happen earlier in February when climo is still favorable.

Agreed.   

The last 10 Januarys at Upton averaged 16.15" which is well above the long term average and beats the same 10 Februarys average by 2".   Even bigger January advantage if you take the last five years instead of 10.     So we haven't done as poorly in January as it may seem.

 

 

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35 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Some cold will come in after Jan 5 as MJO skirts phase 7-1, but it'll be transient. Afterwards all signs point to a big eastern ridge, which means January is probably toast. 

It's possible we'll be chasing 01/02  or 11/12 going into Feb though I think another late winter comeback will save us from that bleak outcome.

what happened to all the cold January forecasts?  Forky seemed like he was agreeing with them before.

 

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5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Some cold will come in after Jan 5 as MJO skirts phase 7-1, but it'll be transient. Afterwards all signs point to a big eastern ridge, which means January is probably toast. 

It's possible we'll be chasing 01/02  or 11/12 going into Feb though I think another late winter comeback will save us from that bleak outcome.

You tend to get in trouble when you start off your posts with a valid point but usually wind up going over the top...You do it a lot.;)

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Even if this winter turns out to be a stinker, people need to keep their disappointment in perspective. Lots of spoiled folks who have become accustomed to 30+ inch winters as the norm (in the immediate metro of course).

We've been incredibly lucky the last 20 years or so. The 2000s have been the Golden Era of snow since records have been kept so we are long overdue for a string of bad winters. At some point, there will be regression to the mean for us coasties and last year might have started that trend.

 

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An important paper concerning the impact of the stratospheric polar vortex...

Abstract:

The impact of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex on persistent weather regimes over North America is so far underexplored. Here we show the relationship between four wintertime North American weather regimes and the stratospheric vortex strength using reanalysis data. We find that the strength of the vortex significantly affects the behavior of the regimes. While a regime associated with Greenland blocking is strongly favored following weak vortex events, it is not the primary regime associated with a widespread, elevated risk of extreme cold in North America. Instead, we find that the regime most strongly associated with widespread extremely cold weather does not show a strong dependency on the strength of the lower stratospheric zonal mean zonal winds. We also suggest that stratospheric vortex morphology may be particularly important for cold air outbreaks during this regime.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL085592

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10 hours ago, 203whiteout said:

And right on par with last year. Freaky. This sucks...I feel you’re pain.

 

2018 Top

2019 Bottom

 

0BA21E62-5BC8-4A6E-B33E-0E38F53512FE.jpeg

Despite a few changes vs last year, we still arrive at the same destination.

Warm Oct, cold Nov, most of Dec was BN to normal, now Jan could torch and so should Feb before huge blocking sets in for March/April. 

MJO now expected to enter the same phases we saw last year too. 

I'm hoping I'm wrong about early spring and Feb but all signs point to those outcomes. 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Despite a few changes vs last year, we still arrive at the same destination.

Warm Oct, cold Nov, most of Dec was BN to normal, now Jan could torch and so should Feb before huge blocking sets in for March/April. 

MJO now expected to enter the same phases we saw last year too. 

I'm hoping I'm wrong about early spring and Feb but all signs point to those outcomes. 

What outcomes ?

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