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December 2019 Discussion


Hoosier
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3 hours ago, ovweather said:

Louisville currently blow-torching at 63 degrees. The record high for Christmas is 68 degrees. That record could fall Wednesday.

Looking at the visible satellite, the snow pack from last week's storm across central Illinois and Indiana is trying desperately to hang on.

Yep...that 7-8 inch snowpack is hanging on longer than I thought it would given these warmer temps.  Supposed to be 60 Christmas day with possible t storms Sat, according to some mets around here.

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Didn't realize how warm Christmas has been lately.  Wednesday will mark the 4th out of the last 6 Christmases at MLI AOA 50 degrees.  2014 hit 50, 2016 hit 56, 2018 hit 50, and this Christmas it looks to make a run at 60.  Pretty crazy.

I guess next year I'll just assume December will be another dud, and look forward to another warm Christmas.  Seems to be the new norm.

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41 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Didn't realize how warm Christmas has been lately.  Wednesday will mark the 4th out of the last 6 Christmases at MLI AOA 50 degrees.  2014 hit 50, 2016 hit 56, 2018 hit 50, and this Christmas it looks to make a run at 60.  Pretty crazy.

I guess next year I'll just assume December will be another dud, and look forward to another warm Christmas.  Seems to be the new norm.


Yeah, this trend of awful December’s preceded by awful springs needs to stop. Seems as if almost every December since 2010 is an expansion of fall, and then spring is an expansion of winter lol. Obviously outlier months March 2012, December 2013 etc.. 

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Didn't realize how warm Christmas has been lately.  Wednesday will mark the 4th out of the last 6 Christmases at MLI AOA 50 degrees.  2014 hit 50, 2016 hit 56, 2018 hit 50, and this Christmas it looks to make a run at 60.  Pretty crazy.

I guess next year I'll just assume December will be another dud, and look forward to another warm Christmas.  Seems to be the new norm.

The other way to look at it is that it is a pretty anomalous stretch of warm Christmases that can't keep going.

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Since 2014 we've been in a +ENSO feature across the region. 2016-17 was a borderline La Nina and the 2017-18 La Nina barely lasted 6 months. If we take away those years, the last true La Nina event was 2011-12. Cold Decembers are more closely correlated with La Nina's so unless next year is a decent La Nina, the chances of another crappy December are higher than usual. 

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I got back from my trip to Ohio. I was in the Akron/Canton area, and I drove to Toledo and back. We had 5 consecutive sunny days, with no low stratus clouds. (Thursday-Monday) There is a very low chance to have 5 sunny days in a row at this time of year, with no overcast stratus clouds at any time. Here's my thinking. The chance of having roughly 24 hours of clear(ish) skies is 20% or less. Weather tends to change in some predictable ways over the course of 5 days. But if you just think of this as a series of random events, then the chance of 5 sunny days is (0.2)^5 = 0.00032 = 0.032%

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1 hour ago, bowtie` said:

Can't ask for much more. No weather related travel woes this year.

 

Happy, Happy, Merry, Merry everyone.

Merry Christmas to you. We do have some travel woes in this area as dense fog has hung out since early this morning and doesn't look to break until late tomorrow morning.

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5 hours ago, Chambana said:

Finished product. Just pulled steaks off the grill for the wife and family. Here’s to a to a rocking January, and hoping I can reel in a much needed big dog this winter. 

DEB4E11B-24DC-452B-B019-61F979746AD3.jpeg

Very nice.  I'm still stuffed from earlier, and seeing that still makes my mouth water lol.  

Merry Christmas everyone!

EDIT:  MLI ended up hitting 61 today.  

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