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Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm


Zelocita Weather
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10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This is one of those storms that would probably have been forecast better in 1989 because models would have shown nothing but snow showers probably 

Agreed.  Jeff Beradelli always says that the devil is in the details. I wonder if anyone would care to dissect this event and choose the model that closest predicted this event 72, 48, and 24 hours out?

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10 minutes ago, Sanman 06 said:

It’s been snowing at a good clip Here in Staten Island for the past hour and streets are finally  getting snow covered !! 

86FD4B2A-EC4F-4AC5-9217-AC7DCF5F919B.jpeg

it is snowing again a bit over on this side of the Arthur Kill was well, enough to put down a dusting over my cleaned walk. Not enough to get me a delay tomorrow. BUt hey its Dec. Long way to go yet. It is not at all unprecedented over the years for higher elevations and more interior areas to be doing well while the coast does not. Many years we had very few storms down my way but areas in Sussex, Warren, even Bergen would still see a few decent events. To clarify though, the rates aren't enough to get to an inch anytime soon. More like mood flakes. Go out and take walk. I fired up the snowblower ( which was useless in the 2 -3 of slush and let the dog jump around and chase snowballs.Poor guy. I went in and got dressed for bed, mentioned to my wife to let the dog in. She didn't hear me. He's been out there running around the yard for a long time, covered in snow. She's got him wrapped in a blanket by the fireplace right now.....

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5 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Agreed.  Jeff Beradelli always says that the devil is in the details. I wonder if anyone would care to dissect this event and choose the model that closest predicted this event 72, 48, and 24 hours out?

I think all got various pieces right.  At that range I think the Euro mostly was best.  Today a combination of the Euro/12Km NAM/UKMET all got various aspects right.  The Euro was perfect til 20Z then lost it.  The UKMET and 12km NAM sort of saw the funky evolution of the bands south of LI and in coastal NE NJ from 21-00Z but didn’t really get them totally accurate.

 

I think the bottom line is that this was largely an inverted trof today and while many sort of suspected it was it was difficult to tell if it was an IVT or an IVT TROWAL CCB hybrid event 

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Just now, Brasiluvsnow said:

Doorman = Props to you and take a bow as I will be a monkeys uncle as it is snowing again here ( New City ) and at a pretty god clip 

There was no reason  to throw in the towel early this afternoon. People will add on some snow if the bands come through. 

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4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

There was no reason  to throw in the towel early this afternoon. People will add on some snow if the bands come through. 

I didn't throw it in this afternoon but looking at the radar earlier tonight gave me pause,,,,,props to Doorman and a few others and U2 88 = as whoever called this a non event or non storm should take a look at my neighborhood 

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2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

I didn't throw it in this afternoon but looking at the radar earlier tonight gave me pause,,,,,props to Doorman and a few others and U2 88 = as whoever called this a non event or non storm should take a look at my neighborhood 

Depends on your location. It's been snowing again here for hours but has not accumulated more than a dusting. So I don't expect those bands to get down to Middlesex County or SI.

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2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Depends on your location. It's been snowing again here for hours but has not accumulated more than a dusting. So I don't expect those bands to get down to Middlesex County or SI.

Pruf I get it but it always depends on location and I have friends all over the place some got nothing or not much so far today and others got a lot more than myself

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2 hours ago, USCG RS said:

 

 

 

 

 

This is America, seems like there is no such thing anymore

 

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

Every once in awhile someone posts something so profoundly true I have to tip my hat. What happened to diplomacy? Speak softly and all? It's a task to get through the day....

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3 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Pruf I get it but it always depends on location and I have friends all over the place some got nothing or not much so far today and others got a lot more than myself

Yeah, nothing you can do. Be nice to have a storm of 8-9 inches here again, have not seen one for a few years; most have topped out at 3-6, and many at 2-4. Seems I either get the odd 30 incher or I get 4 inches. Normal "MECS" just don't occur IMB lately. We got a long way to go, thought the usual suspects are already saying it will be bad conditions for snow this year, again...

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5 hours ago, RU848789 said:

As of 3:30 pm, still have just 2" OTG, as it's been snowing fairly lightly the last hour and my guess is the snowfall rate was matched by the melting rate for an accumulation rate of zero.  Anyone who thinks this storm looks healthy is delusional: a few hours ago, 2/3 of CNJ/NNJ was under 20 DBZ+ rates, while maybe 1/10th of that area is under that kind of rate.  We may still get pivoting and more snow, but the last few hours have underperformed for most. 

On the bright side, at 3:30 pm, while the NWS-Philly dropped the warnings for most of eastern PA, they kept them for Mercer, Somerset, Hunterdon, Warren, Morris, Sussex, W. Monmouth and Middlesex for 2-4" of additional snow.  They also kept advisories for the tier of counties south of those counties for 1-2" more snow, but dropped all advisories for Philly Metro.  

So much for 2-4" of additional snow, sadly.  Got very little during the rest of the afternoon, with whatever fell mostly melting.  However, since about 6 pm, we got another 1/2" or so, much of it in the last 2 hours with some occasionally moderate snow. 2.5" total now. Not quite 5-8", but it still looks nice and makes great snowballs! Could be another 1/2" or so is my guess, looking at the radar.

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20 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

There was no reason  to throw in the towel early this afternoon. People will add on some snow if the bands come through. 

No reason to throw in the towel? It's mostly wet in the boroughs. Here in Northeast Queens which is one of the colder spots, there's barely a coating if that. It's a bust unless something unforseen happens overnight.

Maybe others in the immediate metro did a lot better but in midtown and my part of Queens, nothing but white rain.

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