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Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm


Zelocita Weather
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1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Snowfall intensity the last hour has been light to moderate, so only got 1/2" in the last hourd with 2" OTG as of 2:30 pm.  Temp ia at 33F (been bouncing between 32 and 33F, just warm enough for some melting). 

The 18Z HRRR only has another 2" for most of CNJ/NNJ so I'm thinking most folks in warning areas aren't going to make it to the 5-8" range predicted for many of us if the model is correct.  I'm at 2" now and 2 more would be 4", which I'd be happy with - of course the HRRR is nowhere near being correct all the time.  Radar really looking ragged though vs. an hour or two ago.  Let's hope this thing cranks back up.  

As of 3:30 pm, still have just 2" OTG, as it's been snowing fairly lightly the last hour and my guess is the snowfall rate was matched by the melting rate for an accumulation rate of zero.  Anyone who thinks this storm looks healthy is delusional: a few hours ago, 2/3 of CNJ/NNJ was under 20 DBZ+ rates, while maybe 1/10th of that area is under that kind of rate.  We may still get pivoting and more snow, but the last few hours have underperformed for most. 

On the bright side, at 3:30 pm, while the NWS-Philly dropped the warnings for most of eastern PA, they kept them for Mercer, Somerset, Hunterdon, Warren, Morris, Sussex, W. Monmouth and Middlesex for 2-4" of additional snow.  They also kept advisories for the tier of counties south of those counties for 1-2" more snow, but dropped all advisories for Philly Metro.  

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10 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

As of 3:30 pm, still have just 2" OTG, as it's been snowing fairly lightly the last hour and my guess is the snowfall rate was matched by the melting rate for an accumulation rate of zero.  Anyone who thinks this storm looks healthy is delusional: a few hours ago, 2/3 of CNJ/NNJ was under 20 DBZ+ rates, while maybe 1/10th of that area is under that kind of rate.  We may still get pivoting and more snow, but the last few hours have underperformed for most. 

On the bright side, at 3:30 pm, the NWS-Philly dropped the warnings for most of eastern PA, but kept them for Mercer, Somerset, Hunterdon, warren, Morris Sussex and Middlesex for 2-4" of additional snow.  Let's hope they're right. 

Pretty obvious its about done out here. Seen it dozens of times. I took a long walk in Merrill and it was really cool in one of those heavy bands. But I hope the whole season isn't the same level of uncertainty. As I said prior, my area usually struggles anyway. i expected 1-3 and I think it looks like about 3 to me out there. Tapering off now will be a blessing for everyone getting out of work.

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2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I mean the models performed poorly at best so far.  But yea, I have no idea why they'd up totals now.  

Upton in their latest discussion  thinks heavier bands will form later tonight for the area. That's why they raised the amounts. We shall see.

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Rates really slowed down here in southern Westchester. Heavier bands are still possible. The only 100% definite so far with this storm is that JB's call of 'feet' of snow for the I-95 corridor will not pan out, unless he backtracks and then says that he meant the I-95 corridor in Maine. Other than that I think the NWS forecast is still in play, but if we do not see things start to fill in by 9-10PM then we are toast.

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Just now, Wetbulbs88 said:

Upton upped my totals to 3-5"...They really need to hire onsite obs, or they're going to continue to put themselves behind the 8 ball on pulling advisories and warnings. 

Take a look at the radar south of LI. Bands are starting to pivot  north.

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Take a look at the radar south of LI. Bands are starting to pivot  north.

Dry air seems to be a problem now too, ground truth isn’t matching the radar. 
It’s still possible we pull a miracle like with the third March storm in 2018, I had 14” at home from one tiny band 

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I don't think the forecast was that bad. I fully expected places north of me at higher elevations to get substantially more snow in this kind of storm. 1-3 was always a good call, and those calling for 3-6, well, a lot of us seem to have gotten to 3. So that's not exactly blown. I do think these new models overdo things; I'd be sitting at  100 inches a year if some of them panned out ( they don't, and thank God ).

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3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Dry air seems to be a problem now too, ground truth isn’t matching the radar. 
It’s still possible we pull a miracle like with the third March storm in 2018, I had 14” at home from one tiny band 

It's possible but the radar doesnt look that  bad

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1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said:

Good luck.

I thought 1-3 was a good call, at this point it would be a miracle

 

49 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

First time in a while (to my memory) that the NAM really busted within the 24-48 hr range. Bummer. 

This was not a normal storm in any shape or form, I never liked this setup. Unless you were in the perfect spot you were going to find this storm very frustrating.

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