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Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm


Zelocita Weather
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5 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Can I ask another question ? How accurate / reliable is the surface Low track guidance ? 

The surface progs from the OPC inside of 24hrs are money....:pimp:

their forecasters are some of the best in the biz

trust me on this

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18 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Doorman is somewhat of a legend around these parts. That withstanding, he is appearance is rather rare these days. He normally moonlights when something big is in the cards.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

USCG, then let me just add 2 things, I appreciate his and your replies and that I am not worthy , now back to tracking :)

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One thing to watch for the coast is the wind direction. It’s going to be tuff to get temps low enough for accumulations until the wind goes North. I’m thinking 1-2” at home on the south shore and 3-5” at work on the far UWS where I’ll be posting from. 
Be careful using snow maps as your source for QPF and where banding sets up. There is more further East that could be shown as rain that may actually be snow

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Thought summaries of the NWS Philly/NYC forecasts and the relevant snowfall maps might be helpful.  Significant bust potential exists on the low side for NWS-Philly and on the high side for the NWS-NYC, IMO. This is really going to be a nowcasting event, i.e., watching the radars and the sky.  Where do I sign up for the 4-7" forecast for me? 

So let's get to what the NWS-Phillly is saying.

  • Warnings are now up for 5-8" of snow for Bucks, the Lehigh Valley, Mercer, Hunterdon, and Somerset,
  • A warning is up for 4-7" for Middlesex
  • Warnings are up for 6-10" for the Poconos, Sussex/Warren/Morris.
  • Advisories are now up for 2-5" for Montco, W. Chester, Berks, W. Monmouth, Ocean, and Burlington
  • Advisories are up for 1-4" for E. Chester, Delaware, Philly, Gloucester, Camden, and E. Monmouth.

And what the NWS-NYC is saying.

  • Warnings are up for 5-7" of snow up for W. Union, and W. Essex
  • Warnings are up for 5-10" of snow for Passaic, N. Bergen, Orange, Putnam, Rockland, N. Westchester, and N. Fairfield
  • Advisories are up for 2-4" for eastern Union, eastern Essex, southern Bergen, Hudson, Bronx, Manhattan, Staten Island, Queens, Brooklyn, S. Westchester and N. Nassau (and 4-6" for interior CT/3-5" for coastal CT).

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30 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

One thing to watch for the coast is the wind direction. It’s going to be tuff to get temps low enough for accumulations until the wind goes North. I’m thinking 1-2” at home on the south shore and 3-5” at work on the far UWS where I’ll be posting from. 
Be careful using snow maps as your source for QPF and where banding sets up. There is more further East that could be shown as rain that may actually be snow

...yeah..i'm thinking 1-2" here also..all about wind direction for us..

but 2 things..

where does the deformation band set up?

and the upper level low seems to be diving further south and east..colder?..just a observation..

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