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Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm


Zelocita Weather
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1 minute ago, JustinRP37 said:

You just said 4-6 inches now you are saying clobbered. Either we have vastly different definitions of 'clobbered' or 4-6 over 18 hours is not 'clobbered'. That would be 0.333 inches per hour over 18 hours. 

Agreed, in the era of blockbuster storms clobbered would be something like the deform band in feb 06 which dumped something like 18” in the park alone. That’s not happening even in the perfect scenario tomorrow.

i still like 2-8” for the park tomorrow 

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

The HRRR beyond 8 hours is bad.  It actually was awful today with the weather coming through here.  The 3Km NAM really nailed today’s event overall 

I've found the 3k to be quite useful since its inception, and think it's probably more realistic than the 12k in terms of what will happen tomorrow. Hope I'm wrong. 

That being said, looks like I might've been right about that megaband in NJ being overdone. No way a redeveloping low off the Cape was gonna bomb out like while transferring energy. 

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Just now, Wetbulbs88 said:

I've found the 3k to be quite useful since its inception, and think it's probably more realistic than the 12k in terms of what will happen tomorrow. Hope I'm wrong. 

That being said, looks like I might've been right about that megaband in NJ being overdone. No way a redeveloping low off the Cape was gonna bomb out like while transferring energy. 

Inside 24 its very good.  Beyond that it typically isnt very consistent 

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Just now, Wetbulbs88 said:

I've found the 3k to be quite useful since its inception, and think it's probably more realistic than the 12k in terms of what will happen tomorrow. Hope I'm wrong. 

That being said, looks like I might've been right about that megaband in NJ being overdone. No way a redeveloping low off the Cape was gonna bomb out like while transferring energy. 

The idea that a wide swath was getting 10" of snow from that was likely overdone, yes. Maybe someone would but it seemed to be an area of more moderate snow that would be a 3-6" type deal. Hopefully tomorrow many of us get a few (more) inches, I wouldn't start hoping for more than that yet. 

One area it looks like I was wrong about was Boston-the city at least has been mostly rain and they're relying on part 2 for any more just like we are. They'll also be in the upper 30s or over 40 for quite a bit longer. East winds are torching them. Albany and the western half of MA have been the place to be for sure. 

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9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The HRRR beyond 8 hours is bad.  It actually was awful today with the weather coming through here.  The 3Km NAM really nailed today’s event overall 

Sorry. Sarcasm button did not work.

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7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

If you really believe the NAM surface temps and at night then it is definitely possible the ratios could 10:1. I'm of course skeptical.

Here’s the more accurate depiction of what the 0Z NAM shows; 12 K: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019120200&fh=36  3K: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019120200&fh=36 

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7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Sure it is. According to 3k just south of albany is going to get 1 more inch by tuesday morning, lol. maybe 1 more foot. 

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Just now, HeadInTheClouds said:

Sure it is. According to 3k just south of albany is going to get 1 more inch by tuesday morning, lol. maybe 1 more foot. 

Yea I wasn’t going to say anything the fact is I don’t post to his comments due to the fact that they are all invalid. 3-6 inches area wide tomorrow with more in isolated spots.

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19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Inside 24 its very good.  Beyond that it typically isnt very consistent 

For sure. Kinda sits between the HRRR and NAM in terms of usefulness. Its best use IMO is in how it tempers the NAM's overexcitement sometimes. When you see them both lockstep, then you know they're onto something. 

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