Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm


Zelocita Weather
 Share

Recommended Posts

The GFS LAMP has no 32* surface T for the next 24 hours in NYC, so early Tues AM will have to be when any snow might occur.        Even Albany gets to 32* over the next 24 hours on the LAMP.

https://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/lamp/getlav.pl?sta=KNYC

All the models head for 60^ and Rain in 8-10 days anyway.       The EURO-EPS flips twice by 30+ degrees in a 4 day period at that time.        Fearing a long wait for Arctic air to produce a slam dunk snowstorm around here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The snow was sticking in Manhattan. 

Anthony just west of SI we never saw any snow at all here all day but had a period of sleet. As I went further west it transitioned ( Somerset CTY ) to heavy rain and that's where its been all night. In fact at the Costco people were watching scenes from the game and asking where they were playing at ( a lot of us don't watch football and didn't know it was a home game for Giants? I think...sorry I don't watch sports except for some soccer so I'm not informed on these things ) because there was obvious snow OTG and there was nothing locally.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

Severe thunderstorms with the upper low in western PA near Pittsburgh right now. Quite a few small hail reports coming out of that low-topped squall line.

This is part of the feature we'll see rotating into NJ and offshore tomorrow morning.

This storm evolution and various records will make a good topic for a research paper.

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Hrdps has a nice band over NYC  and NJ tomorrow. It then forms other bands and pivoted throughout the whole area which results in several inches for NYC and LI.

CnJ gets close to a foot with the huge band

88 and others = the Lower Hudson Valley/ my area still very much in play no ? As is everyone else until the low actually redevelops or am I mistaken

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

88 and others = the Lower Hudson Valley/ my area still very much in play no ? As is everyone else until the low actually redevelops or am I mistaken

Everyone is still in the game. It all depends on the actual placement of the low and when the deform bands develop.  Any adjustment of 20 -30 miles could move that band 20-30 miles too. Won't know till tomorrow.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I seem to recall (could be wrong) that during pleasant or unpleasant surprises, there was usually 1 model that showed a similar outcome. So, if the furthest east outlier by 0z still doesn't get NYC into the heavy action, then it would take a pretty bad error across the board (not impossible but less likely) if such an outcome transpires.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Snowman86 said:

Thats not good

It’s not a surprise, and doesn’t mean much for the second part of the storm. There’s East wind driving in warm ocean air and will continue until the low starts pulling away. The question is how quick the upper low develops and where it tracks, this will cool us back down. Also, where the associated snow bands form. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Likely because there is a legit concern regarding the blocking that this storm is forced more E than NE

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

LOL west of me, east of me....someone will get something in some direction away from here. One thing I'll say, there has been no shortage of nasty east winds this fall. More than I can ever remember. Prevailing winds are supposed to be westerly, at least that's what the answer was on the old captain's exam. I remember one ol salt saying yeah, send em down here any afternoon during summer and I'll show em "westerly" winds....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

18Z Euro at fast glance without seeing snow maps would seem to have heaviest snows bounded by FWN-CDW or so but it was a rough glance.  It seemed less impressive for central to southern NJ and inched its way closer to NYC but not there yet 

Yeah, its ugly city east. NW Jersey and the castskills get crushed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Yeah, its ugly city east. NW Jersey and the castskills get crushed.

This is exactly at odds with another poster. Since I am not interested in looking at models myself, it makes it kinda confusing to see these reports. How could it be ugly if another poster says it looks further east ( either solution misses me so really don't care, just wondering )

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...