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Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm


Zelocita Weather
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I think 1-3” is a great call for the city with 2-4” for the immediate NW suburbs and parts of LI. 3-6” once you get near 287 in NJ and North of the Thruway in Rockland. 4-8” for Northern Westchester, 3-6” near the Tappan Zee bridge and 1-3” for Southern Westchester and the Northern Bronx. Once North of 84 in NY I like 6-10”, same for the Pocoos and extreme NW NJ. NW of Newburg I see the greatest potential for >12”.

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15 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Might be generous at this point. Gave me something to follow the past few days though so whatever. 6z suite was brutal.

6z and 18z runs aren’t as reliable given lack of data fed into them relative to 12z and 0z. Would just focus on those when they come out. 

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2 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Someone notify upton, they are orders of magnitude too high for parts of the metro, sure hope they know this entire map is only gonna see 1/2”. What a terrible incoming bust for okx. :ph34r:

AB81AB48-36F1-4BEB-84FF-7FCA322BE396.png

Not really sure why you feel this way... I think the city gets a few inches. This isn’t a traditional backend.

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The problem with this forum is you have people posting out of mommy's basement that NYC with water temps in the 50s and against climo is "gonna get crushed" and "the NAM is a top three American model" along with the Euro and UKMET. These posts (a ton of them) make this forum unreadable. Then one goes to the NE forum where for the vast majority of posts there's actually thoughtful insights being discussed until NYC crazy town postings start showing up in their sub forum. Once it became obvious NYC was not a jackpot zone this morning, mommy's basement weather warrior slinks away in silence. Sad.. 

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8 minutes ago, Edubbs83 said:

6z and 18z runs aren’t as reliable given lack of data fed into them relative to 12z and 0z. Would just focus on those when they come out. 

Not true.  As of this 2014 thread, the 6/18Z scores were slightly worse than 12/0Z, but much better than the 6-hr previous model run, which is mostly a function of being 6 hours closer to the event, which will almost always result in a more accurate forecast, given numerical modeling of chaotic systems, like the weather, where forecast errors always get worse the further out in time one goes.  I also recall reading more recently that the 6/18Z gap had narrowed further, but couldn't find that in a quick search.  

 

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1 minute ago, West Mtn NY said:

The problem with this forum is you have people posting out of mommy's basement that NYC with water temps in the 50s and against climo is "gonna get crushed" and "the NAM is a top three American model" along with the Euro and UKMET. These posts (a ton of them) make this forum unreadable. Then one goes to the NE forum where for the vast majority of posts there's actually thoughtful insights being discussed until NYC crazy town postings start showing up in their sub forum. Once it became obvious NYC was not a jackpot zone this morning, mommy's basement weather warrior slinks away in silence. Sad.. 

Eh,  relax. I agree that there are some "interesting" posters who occasionally deserve a time out, but there are plenty of knowledgeable ones.  Pretty easy to just filter out some of the nonsense if you ask me. 

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Just now, ILoveWinter said:

Eh,  relax. I agree that there are some "interesting" posters who occasionally deserve a time out, but there are plenty of knowledgeable ones.  Pretty easy to just filter out some of the nonsense if you ask me. 

None of that nonsense is interesting. If it's said in a post.. fine. When it's spread out in dozens of posts during the day along with questioning people who actually have a clue about the weather, then it's not. It's akin to a petulant child on Christmas morning who opens up his NAM and thinks Santa came

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22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I think 1-3” is a great call for the city with 2-4” for the immediate NW suburbs and parts of LI. 3-6” once you get near 287 in NJ and North of the Thruway in Rockland. 4-8” for Northern Westchester, 3-6” near the Tappan Zee bridge and 1-3” for Southern Westchester and the Northern Bronx. Once North of 84 in NY I like 6-10”, same for the Pocoos and extreme NW NJ. NW of Newburg I see the greatest potential for >12”.

Well played... 

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5 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said:

None of that nonsense is interesting. If it's said in a post.. fine. When it's spread out in dozens of posts during the day along with questioning people who actually have a clue about the weather, then it's not. It's akin to a petulant child on Christmas morning who opens up his NAM and thinks Santa came

This is an open forum so I sort of expect it and just don't get bothered by it too much, but to each his own I guess.

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the numbers creep up again.....

DW.png.3fe7a7fb2e8e45276903818c7e0f3c92.png

 

a half hour drive for the die hard weenies....should not be a problem if you love snowstorms

backyard QB's   the first week of December for the WIN!!!!

this is a very very nice (pregame) upper air pattern

wg8dlm2.GIF.b26dbf756537c5b195e082be9cf631f2.GIF

 

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