Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm


Zelocita Weather
 Share

Recommended Posts

Yep local forecast is saying 80% chance of "lite snow" but we know better it could get real ugly / beautiful out there depending on what side of the fence you are on. In other news although the details still need to be ironed out it seems the timing was at one time Sunday night but it appears to me it is much earlier ( I think closer to noon but could be wrong ) now anyone have a guesstimate as to the timing ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, purduewx80 said:

UKMET is huge for the interior. 1-2' for the Poconos, Catskills, Berks, with heavy snow in much of the Hudson Valley and higher elevations of N NJ, as well. Coast looks too marginal.

This is going to be a big snowstorm for inland areas. I think the coasts sees some snow but nothing big like what Inland areas will see unless this storm keeps trending colder or bombs out. Today's  guidance is really interesting in that  regards.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The UKMET and CMC basically look like March 2001 gradient as someone pointed out in the SNE thread or even 4/1/97 minus the bigger amounts in EPA and WNJ 

The part that makes this storm tricky is the complexity of all the pieces. I think the extent of the WAA from the primary will be a tricky forecast. The forecast is tricker for the city than it appears because while i expect lots of rain there is both potential for the front end to hit like a wall or the back end CCB to hit like a wall, so the city could get anywhere from no accumulation to several inches depending on those two aspects of the storm which will both be hard to predict until real time.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

We will know more by Saturday 0z. Is that too late to cancel if so ?

YEP I get it but Too late in fact 88 we just booked the flight last night as it was real slim pickens and getting $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$. I tried to get him out of here and back at School by Saturday but he has a big get together with friends Saturday nite they are all back from school. So we watch and we wait ,as I am sure many other people have concerns and travel issues on this weekend = back to the models

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, bluewave said:

We were discussing the record breaking nature of this closed low now over California. So with such an extreme event, there are bound to be some surprises with the snow details. Closed lows are the best bet to get snows down to the coast this time of year. But those details will probably have to wait for later runs.

Those are exactly my thoughts. Based on what I see today, the best bets for wintry precip in the city may be at onset and then late Monday as the upper low and deformation axis pivot nearby.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

We were discussing the record breaking nature of this closed low now over California. So with such an extreme event, there are bound to be some surprises with the snow details. Closed lows are the best bet to get snows down to the coast this time of year. But those details will probably have to wait for later runs.

6A64E5DD-F0AE-4369-90D7-C902F238B1E6.thumb.png.69ca4d5560efaece64a9b9b3e26cf2d7.png

How was the early Nov 2012 event. 

I remember most models had us raining the entire time, it was one of the more recent surprise snow events. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

UKMET is huge for the interior. 1-2' for the Poconos, Catskills, Berks, with heavy snow in much of the Hudson Valley and higher elevations of N NJ, as well. Coast looks too marginal.

There may be something up with the UKMET snowfall output. QPF does not support the snow maps, and in fact, it seems to indicate heavier snow potential in the city.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Rjay pinned this topic
  • BxEngine unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...