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Monday 12/2 Threat Disco


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OK, Question here. Normally when I pull up NWS, I can get a forecast for my ZIPcode. Tonight, when I type in the ZIP,  the page defaults to "Coastal Cumberland" instead of the ZIP, as in Coastal Cumberland County, of which we are a part. And suddenly we are looking at 9-16 inches through tomorrow afternoon, which isn't close to what I am seeing on the latest HRRR or the NAM. Never seen this NWS default before in my (admittedly) limited experience watching the weather up here in Pine Tree Land.  Is this done to save NWS time? Or because the forecasts across these contiguous ZIPS are virtually identical?  Or is this some kind of alternate met universe?

 

 

 

 

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I wasn’t expecting much personally in my location - but it did end up being a disappointment when “part 2” was on the table for almost 2 days worth of modeling and then suddenly disappeared a few hours before it’s going to happen. Would rather have it just been modeled out to sea earlier on. But that’s emotion talking, not science. You have to wonder if this storm will end up being a case study for the scientists and engineers who work on the models...

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2 hours ago, bobbutts said:

That 2-4 tonight and 1-2 they have for me tonight into tomorrow isn't happening is it?

I’ll believe it when I’m shoveling it, or sweeping it off the steps which is more likely...or even more likely that I’m sweeping off the old snow that has blown into the steps.  This round 2 has been dead to us since the downsloping started kicking in this morning 

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Surface map of our power house storm

 

this link shows the current location and intensity of our coastal storm, it has intensified about 4mb/hour in the last hour dropping from 987 to 983mb but is a lot further south than the models showed it intensifying.  This storm is coming much closer to CHH than modeled, the 00z NAM keeps the heavy snow potential in line with the Cape.

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2 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The only storm I remember school being cancelled in high school was the Blizzard of 2005 when they cancelled school for the entire work week.  The storm happened over the weekend and dropped over 24" widespread from eastern CT to the Cape, highways were not plowed enough to ensure safe travel so they cancelled the entire week.  The winter of 2000-2001 or 2001-2002 we had a winter storm warning in place and school was cancelled, not sure it was determined the prior night or that morning, but we got nothing that storm.  It went south.  Again I graduated high school twelve years ago.

This offers explanation...

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Occlusion means at every level, the surface center is hundreds of miles southeast of the region and down to 981mb.  Bombing out 4mb/hour and 8mb/2 hours.

It def. isn't occluded, but that doesn't mean it is hitting us.

Irony is that my first call looks perfect...I stressed the dual forcing from cf to the east and mid levels to the west in RD 2.

Shame on me for trusting guidance 24-36 hours out.

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Just now, Snow88 said:

The low is way too east to make a dent for coastal regions.  It also ruined our chances down here for several inches.

Maybe for NYC area, not for Cape and Islands, models sling shot the surface low NW and the further south this happens the better chance for Cape and Islands to cash in big time.

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Just now, Snow88 said:

The low is way too east to make a dent for coastal regions.  It also ruined our chances down here for several inches.

We got a nice event out of it, but relatively speaking, there was a great deal of potential left on the table. immense energy essentially produced west and east of us, skipping over us in the atmosphere.

We were left with WAA to scrounged a decent event.

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Maybe for NYC area, not for Cape and Islands, models sling shot the surface low NW and the further south this happens the better chance for Cape and Islands to cash in big time.

You will get like 1-3" of slush on the back end...it will take forever to flip.

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Just now, JC-CT said:

Well I haven't looked at a model in a while, but I thought when the cold front overtakes the warm front that's occlusion. I don't really know these things, I'm more into debits and credits.

Not necessarily, when it is stacked in all levels, surface to H5 and the centers are aligned in the column that is occlusion like with hurricanes.

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Just now, JC-CT said:

Well I haven't looked at a model in a while, but I thought when the cold front overtakes the warm front that's occlusion. I don't really know these things, I'm more into debits and credits.

The parent system that clobbered NYS is occluded, but the coastal is just taking off.

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