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Monday 12/2 Threat Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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Clearly hard to gauge what will happen later today.  I'm up on the NH/MA border near Haverhill.  Are we thinking this is it for the storm or another round?  Will it be more of a now-cast thing or will it become clearler as the morning unfolds?  Planning afternoon/evening travel around this.  

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It's going to be pretty close tonight. The mlvls look good enough that there should be a decent band that develops...only problem is it may be rather narrow and I think it's going to be a race between that becoming established and occlusion happening. I think CT is kinda screwed with round 2...maybe NW corner (shocker) gets into some of the goods with banding that develops eastern NY into N NJ

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Yikes, I got .5" but i wasn't suppose to see much more if any at all then that, I wonder what york county received? I havn't looked at a PNS yet.

 

Certainly better than me.  In addition to below I heard 5" in OOB

 

...York County...
1 NNW Ogunquit               7.1 in    0135 AM 12/02   Public
2 NE Kennebunk               2.0 in    1257 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter
Sanford                      1.0 in    0909 PM 12/01   Public
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2 minutes ago, tunafish said:

 

Certainly better than me.  In addition to below I heard 5" in OOB

 


...York County...
1 NNW Ogunquit               7.1 in    0135 AM 12/02   Public
2 NE Kennebunk               2.0 in    1257 AM 12/02   Trained Spotter
Sanford                      1.0 in    0909 PM 12/01   Public

Curious to the updated totals, Those were kind of early on.

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57 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Even if you adjust west, I just feel like this massive band will barely tickle and just light crap west of it. It's a tight call.

I’m with you. I don’t like the trends. I think it’s an all or nothing deal.

Thinking you’ll want to be furthest South and East. Boston on the margin. Northeast trajectory from 50-100 miles east of BM =  Eastern Long Island, RI, to SE MA, and especially cape and islands is where I think it’s a big hit; in terms of qpf. The changes have been subtle from run to run but the mid level track continues to trend south...

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Just now, jbenedet said:

I’m with you. I don’t like the trends. I think it’s an all or nothing deal.

Thinking you’ll want to be furthest South and East. Boston on the margin. Northeast trajectory from 50-100 miles east of BM =  Eastern Long Island, RI, to SE MA, and especially cape and islands is where I think it’s a big hit. The changes have been subtle from run to run but the mid level track continues to trend south...

The south trend favors the Cape and Islands, Long Island, Block Island areas.  This is where I expect the heaviest snows to occur.  The storm bombs either south of the benchmark and travels northward from there to a fifty miles east of CHH.

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8 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

The south trend favors the Cape and Islands, Long Island, Block Island areas.  This is where I expect the heaviest snows to occur.  The storm bombs either south of the benchmark and travels northward from there to a fifty miles east of CHH.

How much has accumulated so far?

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Just now, SnowBrosForever said:

Looks like onite total is .25 out here on Long, which is NE of previously cited locals and, most significantly, surrounded by H2O. Not enough for cx skis, at least not yet. 

Tough this time of year unless the rates are real heavy to accumulate by the water.

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