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Monday 12/2 Threat Disco


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As someone living just north of Haverhill over the New Hampshire border (Plaistow)this is my absolute dream forecast. I cannot thank you enough if this comes true. fingers crossed!!


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14 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So... Gil Simmons.. A Met on WTNH in CT just did a live feed on FB. He said only to expect and inch or two tonight....and that most will get above freezing tomorrow during the day ( he said not to bank on closed schools ). He also say that round 2 tomorrow night might bring us 1-3 at the most. I think he is using the 3k NAM ( which he showed ). He seemed very confident that this will be the outcome.so, im guessing these snow maps from the Euro and HRRR aren't accurate. Well...at least we are getting the ground covered. :-)

3k NAM....really???  That’s why I’m not a fan of that station.  

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37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Didn't the 3km NAM have like 1 inch of WAA snow for Ray yesterday?

Yep and as we expected it has cooled the mid levels off a bit.  A nice meet in the middle solution. 

But we are getting to the point where folks will start bashing any and all model that isn’t 100% crush job :lol:.  They just don’t need that negativity.

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Right now, the disturbance in question for round 2 is the area of energy over eastern NE and western IA at this hour.  Clearly seen on WV imagery.  Where the upper level energy catches the surface low will determine where it blows up rapidly and where the best most intense snow rates occur.  If it is captured southeast of ACK, Cape and Islands will see a lot of snow and blizzard conditions, but if the capture is later more like south of Nova Scotia and Boston region gets the most snows.  When the storm explodes as the upper level disturbance catches the surface low bombogenesis occurs and turns any remaining rain over to a heavy wind blown snow.

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Right now, the disturbance in question for round 2 is the area of energy over eastern NE and western IA at this hour.  Clearly seen on WV imagery.  Where the upper level energy catches the surface low will determine where it blows up rapidly and where the best most intense snow rates occur.  If it is captured southeast of ACK, Cape and Islands will see a lot of snow and blizzard conditions, but if the capture is later more like south of Nova Scotia and Boston region gets the most snows.  When the storm explodes as the upper level disturbance catches the surface low bombogenesis occurs and turns any remaining rain over to a heavy wind blown snow.

Actually the round 2 shortwave is farther east than that. It still needs to rotate around the north side of the upper low. 

Just a tick north of Lake Erie at the moment.

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Just now, OceanStWx said:

It is. The shortwave over IA may be what enhances precip Monday afternoon. The thing over Erie is Tuesday.

Yeah I just figured it out, thanks for the correction, the energy over MO is the one that slows the precip down and actually enhances convection, but the short wave over ERIE is the one  that is the catalyst for the secondary bombogenesis tomorrow night.

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