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Monday 12/2 Threat Disco


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Radars evolving nicely for this front end thump. Surprised I'm forecast to get 12 inches here starting in a few hours but am still under a WWA. Guess it's a duration thing but can't say I've ever seen that before.

Got to run to the store though, moved this summer and realizing I have no idea were my snow brushes are for the cars.

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Just now, Amped said:

Trying to figure out how this Boston deathband popped up out of nowhere the last 2 runs. There has been a gradual trend to close the 700mb low off further south near Atlantic City instead of NYC. Doesn't quite explain why it suddenly gave March 1997  death band suddenly appeared.

Is it really out of nowhere though? It's been at least 24 hours of the Euro on board with a strong band, and I know I've been talking about the mid level banding signal for a couple days. 

I think it's key that you're tucking the deepening 700 mb low into Cape Cod and keeping that forcing pinned through the heart of the region.

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7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Here's BOX's current map (timestamp notwithstanding, it looks like they upped it since then).  Meanwhile, they have no mention of changes of advisories in the 1:44 update, while they're forecasting a foot for Worcester. 

Twilight Zone.

image.thumb.png.c9e3ab46eb0ff55f87716eb1bb5ca467.png

Boy, BOX has had greenfield pegged for days, nowhere to go but down from here. LOL

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15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is a real tough setup. Given my mentions earlier about meso lows and vortmaxes wobbling around, the low for tomorrow night is in a precarious spot. Any minor shift and it changes things quite a bit. I’m sure most know, but I’d wait to confirm those exorbitant amounts.

Agree, complex and precarious. Something in how the vortmaxes are handled and how the different lows consolidate made multiple members of 12z suite jump... we're now seeing SLP to 970s by 9z-12z Tues (deepest and closest we've seen yet) on NAM/RGEM/Euro, whereas in general prior guidance has shown a meandering occluded 980s low. 

The WAA tonight has gotten most of the attention, but real powder keg potential for eastern areas comes Mon night-Tues. It's precarious and guidance is just catching on. What regions benefit most, I'm still uncertain. eastern SNE / NH / ME I think have best shot.

And for those who are considering now "just hours before go-time", the more relevant and distinct process of surface low consolidation and ULL capture is > 24 hours away.

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42 minutes ago, radarman said:

Not sure folks realize just how crushed NNE mts got in March 01.  3-4'.  

and the I-95 mets never lived that one down lol.  After that storm all of our local outlets went extremely conservative with their snowfall forecasts.  You never see a call of more than 6-12 inches on TV around here, regardless of what the models show, until we're right in the middle of the storm.

 

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Is it really out of nowhere though? It's been at least 24 hours of the Euro on board with a strong band, and I know I've been talking about the mid level banding signal for a couple days. 

I think it's key that you're tucking the deepening 700 mb low into Cape Cod and keeping that forcing pinned through the heart of the region.

How much does the convection influence where the low sets up?  There's been some discussion of short term changes based on that.

 

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

How much does the convection influence where the low sets up?  There's been some discussion of short term changes based on that.

It looks like NCEP guidance is sensitive to the ridging ahead of the kicker shortwave. If those heights are lower it gives more room for our storm to amplify. That's the biggest signal I see from the Stony Brook stuff.

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21 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Here's BOX's current map (timestamp notwithstanding, it looks like they upped it since then).  Meanwhile, they have no mention of changes of advisories in the 1:44 update, while they're forecasting a foot for Worcester. 

Twilight Zone.

They may be in advisory if they think ORH is just a lolli and everyone else will get less. I think they need at least half the zone (county) to be at or above the minimum criteria in order to issue the warning, so if the northern part of the county or highest elevations are getting a foot, and everyone else is getting 6-8 then it's just an advisory. Also, the minimum thresholds are 7 inches in 12 hours or 9 inches in 24 hours, so the long duration would mean it's just an advisory level storm.

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1 minute ago, snowman21 said:

They may be in advisory if they think ORH is just a lolli and everyone else will get less. I think they need at least half the zone (county) to be at or above the minimum criteria in order to issue the warning, so if the northern part of the county or highest elevations are getting a foot, and everyone else is getting 6-8 then it's just an advisory. Also, the minimum thresholds are 7 inches in 12 hours or 9 inches in 24 hours, so the long duration would mean it's just an advisory level storm.

They've got the entire zone in it.

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

We've had this discussion before, I find it highly unreliable.

Yeah gotta use the 6z/12z/18z/0z runs and ignore the others.  Those are the extended version.

I mean the normal models are all over the place too.  Not surprising something sensitive and run every hour will be different.  

I think it’ll nail the WAA and SWFE stuff.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah gotta use the 6z/12z/18z/0z runs and ignore the others.  Those are the extended version.

I mean the normal models are all over the place too.  Not surprising something sensitive and run every hour will be different.  

I think it’ll nail the WAA and SWFE stuff.

They are actually making real significant improvements to that model quarter over quarter. There's always an experimental version running testing out those new features. I know recent ones include improved cloud forecasts. The latest experimental improves ptype.

It's replacing the NAM eventually, so wait until it goes out 60 hours!

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

They are actually making real significant improvements to that model quarter over quarter. There's always an experimental version running testing out those new features. I know recent ones include improved cloud forecasts. The latest experimental improves ptype.

It's replacing the NAM eventually, so wait until it goes out 60 hours!

I think most of the issues why people think it’s unstable is it runs every damn hour.  If you ran the NAM or GFS every hour all day long you’d get some weird solutions from time to time, heck it happens even when run 4 times a day.  

I just think if you run any model out there right now every hour it’s going to seem to swing back and forth.  I mainly look at the 4 primary runs a day and it’s no more unstable than any other model.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

I think most of the issues why people think it’s unstable is it runs every damn hour.  If you ran the NAM or GFS every hour all day long you’d get some weird solutions from time to time, heck it happens even when run 4 times a day.  

I just think if you run any model out there right now every hour it’s going to seem to swing back and forth.  I mainly look at the 4 primary runs a day and it’s no more unstable than any other model.

Eventually it replaces the NAM, ARW, and NMM, and then the HREF is run with just HRRR members and you can get a true ensemble spread. It's going to be a pretty good system once we get there.

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