Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Monday 12/2 Threat Disco


40/70 Benchmark
 Share

Recommended Posts

Just now, moneypitmike said:

I think there's a general questioning of how far that push actually is--and thoughts that it isn't as far as earlier modeled.

It’s usually pushes further north than modeled so I’m buying that. But I’m favoring a more robust ccb...which since last night has been trending that way.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

RI is a great state I would be happy to be annexed away from CT. Lol Lets do this!!

Not sure if this was what was meant but I lived in SE CT for years and the general flavor of that area is quite distinct from the rest of CT and shares a lot more similarities (and accent) with Rhode Island 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

All models are showing this CCB developing.  This could be a pretty hellacious 6-12hr blitz

The revised disco coming out of Philly was alarming, they said there could be "large changes" to their forecast for Monday, because of the growing threat of a narrow band of 1-2" per hour rates there for several hours for a total of 4-6+ inches

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Happy Birthday Jerry!

A real pain forecast, less because of rain-snow issues and more because of complex evolution. Great disco everyone. Some thoughts:

Likely oversimplified, but the way I view this entire system of "round 1", "round 2", and in between, is a stretched out and messy secondary coastal transfer.

What we're calling "round 1" is still part of WAA associated with the primary low over the Lakes. Yes, 2ndary surface reflections start to pop up by 0z Mon (when the round 1 thump is well underway in SNE and mixing already nearing BOS), but 850 winds are still from the south going all the way back to ~ Michigan. 

For eastern SNE, IMO the bigger potential snow will be impacts of an eventually dominant 2ndary coastal Monday night - Tues. Powderkeg potential that is not spoiled by round 1. How that develops has been a mess, with multiple pieces of vorticity circling around the ULL, hence multiple surface lows appearing to pop up and bobble back and forth over 24 hours between 0z Mon - 0z Tues. Whichever of these multiple lows dominates will determine how hard we (eastern SNE) get hit by its CCB after 0z Tues in "round 2".

Remember this "round 2", even though we are considering it part of the same storm, is still over 24 hours out. I think the baroclinic zone remains closer to the coast and we see bigger impact solutions of a CCB lock in through today.

As for a forecast? Easier to separate the different storm parts, and the bigger total numbers of all rounds put together could appear to disappoint  if we have 12 hours of lighter rain in between.

For the Boston metro area, I'm thinking: 3-6 in round 1, maybe 4-8 in far western burbs... then another 4-8 in round 2 (though I'm much less confident of this for reasons above and its > 24 hours away)... for an event total 7-14.

Obviously biggest bust potential is in the CCB round 2 where this could even bust too low if one of the multiple surface lows dominates sooner and closer.

Awesome start to met winter!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Radar for this first thump heading NE is not impressive at all..shredded look.   If this is round 1....it’s going to disappoint. Unless the precip fills in as it heads in?

nothing but pellets here so far, need some stronger echoes before the warm air takes over or its nothing but sleet for us...on the bright side, air temps are really struggling at the moment 26.3°/17° atm

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Happy Birthday Jerry!

A real pain forecast, less because of rain-snow issues and more because of complex evolution. Great disco everyone. Some thoughts:

Likely oversimplified, but the way I view this entire system of "round 1", "round 2", and in between, is a stretched out and messy secondary coastal transfer.

What we're calling "round 1" is still part of WAA associated with the primary low over the Lakes. Yes, 2ndary surface reflections start to pop up by 0z Mon (when the round 1 thump is well underway in SNE and mixing already nearing BOS), but 850 winds are still from the south going all the way back to ~ Michigan. 

For eastern SNE, IMO the bigger potential snow will be impacts of an eventually dominant 2ndary coastal Monday night - Tues. Powderkeg potential that is not spoiled by round 1. How that develops has been a mess, with multiple pieces of vorticity circling around the ULL, hence multiple surface lows appearing to pop up and bobble back and forth over 24 hours between 0z Mon - 0z Tues. Whichever of these multiple lows dominates will determine how hard we (eastern SNE) get hit by its CCB after 0z Tues in "round 2".

Remember this "round 2", even though we are considering it part of the same storm, is still over 24 hours out. I think the baroclinic zone remains closer to the coast and we see bigger impacts of a CCB lock in through today.

As for a forecast? Easier to separate the different storm parts, and the bigger total numbers of all rounds put together could appear to disappoint  if we have 12 hours of lighter rain in between.

For the Boston metro area, I'm thinking: 3-6 in round 1, maybe 4-8 in far western burbs... then another 4-8 in round 2 (though I'm much less confident of this for reasons above and its > 24 hours away)... for an event total 7-14.

Obviously biggest bust potential is in the CCB round 2 where this could even bust too low if one of the multiple surface lows dominates sooner and closer.

Awesome start to met winter!

Great disco and thank you!   I have to get back to the old hood for a memory lane snow walk with you as we did the night we left in heavy snow and returned in heavy rain (which changed back to snow to save the night).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

nothing but pellets here so far, need some stronger echoes before the warm air takes over or its nothing but sleet for us...on the bright side, air temps are really struggling at the moment 26.3°/17° atm

Still feeling freezing rain could be an issue in the valley later.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

nothing but pellets here so far, need some stronger echoes before the warm air takes over or its nothing but sleet for us...on the bright side, air temps are really struggling at the moment 26.3°/17° atm

Ya, the first surprise is that everyone, in the interior at least, was supposed to start as snow. That isn’t the case at all; so that’s surprise number 1, from round 1 lol.  More surprises to come I think....but yes, it’s cold out there for sure-colder than forecast. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...