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Monday 12/2 Threat Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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When is snow likely to restart in Boston in the evening on Monday? Would afternoon flights run like normal? I imagine even if the runway is clear, there are so many planes that won't be able to make it to fly out of Boston. 

 

(I wish I understood all the jargon here. I sometimes lurk on this site and find it fascinating.)

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Finally fills in overnight Mon for a few hours...yay.

That ain’t happening...it’s not gonna play out like that with the whole state missing out for the most part on an ULL south of LI like that.  
 

at times one has to question some of these ideas...you know Meteorology..not modelology. 

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8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

An inch by my area?

Tossed as far as the eye can see.

I actually forecasted some sleet into s NH, but those totals are absurd.

I definitely agree that was a real warm outlier, but I did want to highlight one nice thing about the 3km NAM. It explicitly forecasts snow ratios based on hydrometeor type. Snow ratios change according to the rime factor. The higher the rime factor the close to pure sleet you are getting. 

This example from the latest 3 km shows reflectivity and rime factor. Over NNE there is reflectivity but no rime factor (=pure snow). As you move SW you get more and more riming. 

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Rime_zpspxpxxwxq.png

> 5 rime factor (cyan into the warm colors) is typically graupel and sleet. The NAM will use snow ratios anywhere from 5:1 for graupel down to 2:1 for sleet. Between the no riming and factor of 5 you get ratios from 3:1 to 8:1. It definitely produces a more realistic looking snowfall map in situations where mixing is forecast to occur.

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