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Monday 12/2 Threat Disco


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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

No not this early. You have last year and October 2011...that's it. 

Nov 2012 did have 6"+ for interior elevations but it wasn't that widespread. Nov 2014 was a smaller area in SNE over 6".  (Basically just Berkshires and ORH hills)

This is also a lot higher end too than last year or Nov 2012/2014. There's potential for some pretty big amounts of it goes well. 

Well 4 out 10. I’m just always so shocked when people post it’s not supposed to snow this time of year. Just can’t follow that 

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25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well 4 out 10. I’m just always so shocked when people post it’s not supposed to snow this time of year. Just can’t follow that 

There is a mega difference between supposed to snow and it snows on occasion just not 8 to 14 inches which is extremely rare. I mean it snows in Dec but as we have shown this first week is a desert , like 10% of the days have an inch or more

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Made some slight adjustments...shifted the 2-4'' zone farther north into southern CT and trimmed the 8-12'' range back a bit. Almost kinda wishing i kept my initial map which was I think 1-3'' immediate shoreline and 3-6'' inland...then added a zone of like 6-10'' where I have the 8-12''...oh well. 

 

761468752_snowmapupdate.png.906a122817293ed7abfc199d84bc1229.png

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

There have been 9 years out of 123 with 6 inches or more in Hfd area between 10 1 and 12 3

CT also only had 4 October tornadoes and none since 1979...then last October happened :) :) :) 

what would be curious to know is how many potential events we have had over those years in that time frame. 

I chalk this one up to "Don't count your chickens before they sh*t" category...surprises ranging from both sides of the spectrum with this one

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

CT also only had 4 October tornadoes and none since 1979...then last October happened :) :) :) 

what would be curious to know is how many potential events we have had over those years in that time frame. 

I chalk this one up to "Don't count your chickens before they sh*t" category...surprises ranging from both sides of the spectrum with this one

So not common at all. 

Wiz:

I dont get it when people say we cant have a tornado in Oct it happens all the time......

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11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So not common at all. 

Wiz:

I dont get it when people say we cant have a tornado in Oct it happens all the time......

Lol exactly.  Some folks have such skewed memories/or ideas about what happens and what used to happen.  I don’t ever get Kev’s take on any of that stuff...it’s just so inaccurate, and downright misleading.  

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51 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

It does incorporate the Euro just not 12z. It has a ton of sleet to the upper NH area . Seems too warm

In my experience the NBM is typically too high on snow ratios and too low on max wet bulb temps aloft. So I usually don't like it because I get too much snow in the forecast relative to what I'm expecting.

Here the issue seems to be surface temps (NBM has a cap above which it doesn't accumulate snow) and mid level drying.

It actually has more QPF than NWS forecasts, so I would guess it's producing a lot of drizzle/freezing drizzle in those 6 hour periods and reducing snowfall as result.

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