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Monday 12/2 Threat Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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4 minutes ago, Russ said:

I'm scheduled to fly out of Boston on Sunday night. I live on the west coast, so I am thinking of changing my ticket to Monday night so I can enjoy some snow and get out of town. I dont want to be stuck till Tuesday. Is that a crazy idea? Monday doesnt look too bad for Boston, but I also cant read maps like folks here. Think flights leave Boston on Monday evening?

Might want to try and get out late Monday afternoon instead. Monday evening could start snowing again in Boston if things go "correctly" with the ULL. It's prob not until later Monday night there but if you want to be safe I'd try and go out Monday afternoon during the drizzle dryslot. 

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4 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Nice... it updates a bit slower on weatherbell. Very cold at 850/925 but borderline at 700mb so definitely some sneaky warm layers in there. 

Wouldn't be surprising if there's big aggregates trying to take over the pellets during the biggest lift and then it goes back to a peltfest during that 00-03z timeframe.  Even the NAM (not 3km) has a very marginal warm layer at BDL looking at the soundings and it's way up at 750mb. Throw some monster lift up in that zone and it gets washed out. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Wouldn't be surprising if there's big aggregates trying to take over the pellets during the biggest lift and then it goes back to a peltfest during that 00-03z timeframe.  Even the NAM (not 3km) has a very marginal warm layer at BDL looking at the soundings and it's way up at 750mb. Throw some monster lift up in that zone and it gets washed out. 

Yeah it's a tough forecast for sure. I have 84 on north in 5-10" that could def be too high. Looks better across the border in Mass. 

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2 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah it's a tough forecast for sure. I have 84 on north in 5-10" that could def be too high. Looks better across the border in Mass. 

Yeah...5" might be ok as a floor N of 84 because they might actually get 3" of sleet/pixie dust (with the pretty cold 875-950 layer) on top of whatever falls as snow the first 3-4 hours. Then there's the ULL stuff obviously which is a wildcard. 

For just the front ender stuff though, I could see justifying 3-6 or 4-7 N of 84 but south of border. Not an easy forecast though. It seems like if we could get one shift in either direction it would make that pike to HFD zone a little more clear cut. 

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44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Lets go for year number 17, shall we?

Out here west of ALB and elevated...we had a 24" in March of 2017 and a 25" storm in March of 2018. Prior to that we hadn't had a >18" storm since the massive 46" dump in late February 2010.

But the airport at ALB is anther world. I know they got a foot tops in 2010 and rain. They might have got one of those 2017/2018 events. Prior to that you'd probably have to go bac to VD 2007 for them. 

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Out here west of ALB and elevated...we had a 24" in March of 2017 and a 25" storm in March of 2018. Prior to that we hadn't had a >18" storm since the massive 46" dump in late February 2010.
But the airport at ALB is anther world. I know they got a foot tops in 2010 and rain. They might have got one of those 2017/2018 events. Prior to that you'd probably have to go bac to VD 2007 for them. 

VD2007 was 16.8”. Sleet and dry slot tickled us.


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