Monday 12/2 Threat Disco

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

God I hate living near the water. Until June that is.

Agreed. Much prefer being by the water in June though than north with snow.

[weatherwiz]

17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Looks reasonable as of now Wiz.  Nice work.

Thanks! 

I probably would have waited until today to do a map as opposed to yesterday but I knew I wouldn't have had time to do a full-out blog post lol. I'm hoping not to have to tweak this anymore. 

17 minutes ago, weathafella said:

5 months and 2 days to 5/1/20!

The more snow we get, the faster the winter goes  

[moneypitmike]

 

 

42 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice

 

Do you have these probability maps for other depths than 6"?  What's it show for 12?

I'm not liking this move the EU at this stage in the game.

[dendrite]

NAM is still pinging up to ORH by 60-63hr. H85 crashes, but it's almost like the wedge deepens and undercuts the warm air aloft at H75.

[moneypitmike]

Just now, dendrite said:

NAM is still pinging up to ORH by 60-63hr. H85 crashes, but it's almost like the wedge deepens and undercuts the warm air aloft at H75.

Meh.

BOX's watch calls for 8-12 with possibly more in the Berks.

Meanwhile, my updated p/c. 

 

Sunday Night

Rain and snow, becoming all rain after 2am. Low around 27. Northeast wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

[mattm4242]

Channel 4 feeling bullish. Even the immediate coastline north of the south shore.

 

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Meh.

BOX's watch calls for 8-12 with possibly more in the Berks.

Meanwhile, my updated p/c. 

 

Sunday Night

Rain and snow, becoming all rain after 2am. Low around 27. Northeast wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

system ends Monday A.M?

[weatherwiz]

Someone should get thundersnow too!!! 

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

What does it show after Monday eve for Central/ northern CT? Also... I see some worrying about some of the warmth the Nam is showing..but..it is still 2-3 days out ( not in Nam's wheel house ), and..Nam can be a bit on the Warm Bias. I always remember Bernie Rayno saying... Don't get caught up in the windshield wipers effect a few days prior..lol

It started getting going near midnight again. Nothing crazy, but verbatim was about to produce widespread snows again.

[dryslot]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

NAM is still pinging up to ORH by 60-63hr. H85 crashes, but it's almost like the wedge deepens and undercuts the warm air aloft at H75.

GYX's first call map is out, Wonder if that's Legro in the grids?

[Torch Tiger]

7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Meh.

BOX's watch calls for 8-12 with possibly more in the Berks.

Meanwhile, my updated p/c. 

 

Sunday Night

Rain and snow, becoming all rain after 2am. Low around 27. Northeast wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

slow unraveling into a 3-6"er

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Something that comes to mind with modeling and past systems

When i see rapid mid level deepening forecast i am less surprised to see a low end up closing off earlier and Slowing /Temporarily stalling Just East of Southern half of Jersey Coast and really hammering Pocano's /Catskills /E slope and bending many over in SNE

I DO NOT see that rapid deepening forecast so  i could still definitely  see this  untucking ....wether that is enough to change the forcing mechanisms enough to generate good lift east of the river Monday nite we shall see how much it untucks.  IT could still be an Elongated low from off S NJ ENE to the Cape like boxing day. The elongation at least kept a Northerly drain going in much of E MA 

There’s a piece of vorticity such that the euro sort of gets the low and slings it back a tad. It’s basically starting to occlude. I see why it’s doing it, but it certainly could be overdone. 

[The 4 Seasons]

20 minutes ago, Hoth said:

God I hate living near the water. Until June that is.

Hamden has climates within its own town, seasons in seasons. You can be raining and 37 on RT 10 at 100ft elevation with zero pack and heavy snow and 32 on gaylord mt road at 600ft elevation. Those areas of hamden deep in the woods probably avg 10-15" more than downtown hamden.

[The 4 Seasons]

11 minutes ago, mattm4242 said:

Channel 4 feeling bullish. Even the immediate coastline north of the south shore.

 

 

You can tell thats a MA channel map, inland central ct mainly rain? nah. inland central CT does not equal SE MA in anyway shape or form. Plus, thats like the tropics/Florida anyways.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Hamden has climates within its own town, seasons in seasons. You can be raining and 37 on RT 10 at 100ft elevation with zero pack and heavy snow and 32 on gaylord mt road at 600ft elevation. Those areas of hamden deep in the woods probably avg 10-15" more than downtown hamden.

Hamden is probably the best spot to be in CT for extreme weather lol. "F4" in 1989, another tornado last year, downbursts, macrobursts, they had that historic flooding, the 40'' of snow, more flooding.

[NorEastermass128]

Tim Kelly going for a general 10-20” for the interior. 3-5” for the coast. Boom. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

Tim Kelly going for a general 10-20” for the interior. 3-5” for the coast. Boom. 

He’s a big Snow weenie 

[weatherwiz]

Wish I was in western SD though...sustained winds 25-35 mph with gusts 50-70 mph...reminds me of watching Little House on the Prairie...and reading the books. Maybe next year I'll do storm chasing for a week out west and then take another week for snow chasing and go to a place that's going to get a nasty blizzard in the Plains 

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Wish I was in western SD though...sustained winds 25-35 mph with gusts 50-70 mph...reminds me of watching Little House on the Prairie...and reading the books. Maybe next year I'll do storm chasing for a week out west and then take another week for snow chasing and go to a place that's going to get a nasty blizzard in the Plains 

I've also been watching Flagstaff AZ webcams. Decent snow before, breezy as well.

[ORH_wxman]

It's all about lift. The lift is kind of meh on the NAM until like after 00z which helps that warm nose lift further north. Then it tries to crash back down (esp below 800mb) when the bigger lift hits. 

[dryslot]

I laughed at the Nam.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

I've also been watching Flagstaff AZ webcams. Decent snow before, breezy as well.

Flagstaff I think is very underrated...they can get crushed with snow and wind. 

[DomNH]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

And Merrimack valley sees dimsun

Though shall not forecast huge numbers when the H7 low is to the west or overhead. We'll get thumped pretty good with the initial WAA but then I could see a prolonged period of -SN that doesn't accumulate well with the best ML forcing to the west and the CF enhancement to the east. I'm tossing the 1.75'' of QPF the Euro is pumping out. I'd go like 8-14'' for now here.

[EastonSN+]

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
403 PM EST Fri Nov 29 2019

CTZ005>007-NJZ002-103-NYZ067>070-301000-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0004.191201T1200Z-191203T1200Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Western Passaic-Western Bergen-Orange-Putnam-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-
403 PM EST Fri Nov 29 2019

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 8 to 12 inches well inland, and 5 to 8 inches
  elsewhere. A light glaze of ice is also possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, inland southern
  Connecticut and southeast New York.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact holiday travel and the morning and
  evening commutes on Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation will start as all snow on
  Sunday. Many areas except well inland are expected to change to
  rain Sunday night. However, a change back to a wintry mix is
  expected by Monday morning, and all snow by Monday afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

[Sn0waddict]

18z RGEM looks nice. Good front end thump. Keep lower level cold locked in for longer too.

[OceanStWx]

27 minutes ago, dryslot said:

GYX's first call map is out, Wonder if that's Legro in the grids?

Nope. Just here on the swing shift but I tacitly approve the 8-12" jackpot totals as a starting point (or launching pad if you're Kevin). 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

7 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Though shall not forecast huge numbers when the H7 low is to the west or overhead. We'll get thumped pretty good with the initial WAA but then I could see a prolonged period of -SN that doesn't accumulate well with the best ML forcing to the west and the CF enhancement to the east. I'm tossing the 1.75'' of QPF the Euro is pumping out. I'd go like 8-14'' for now here.

I’ll go 6-10 

For early December that’s big 

If models trend back to good lift Monday nite we Adjust 

[Hoth]

20 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Hamden has climates within its own town, seasons in seasons. You can be raining and 37 on RT 10 at 100ft elevation with zero pack and heavy snow and 32 on gaylord mt road at 600ft elevation. Those areas of hamden deep in the woods probably avg 10-15" more than downtown hamden.

Oh for sure. I just lament being closer to downtown lol. 

[Fozz]

Here in northern RI, my gut tells me this will be a messy advisory event, with 2-5".

I've been haunted by last minute north shifts back in the mid-Atlantic and I can easily see that happening this time. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Nope. Just here on the swing shift but I tacitly approve the 8-12" jackpot totals as a starting point (or launching pad if you're Kevin). 

Lol, I'm thinking some of that watch area will get expanded going forward, More upside to this i think going forward up here, I think we still have some ticks to the NNW coming, Right now i would gladly take 4".