Monday 12/2 Threat Disco

[STILL N OF PIKE]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Depends.  Round 1 can easily give many 4-8.

Right now I would say it’s trending toward round 1 > round 2 unless that tucked low moves further north east Monday afternoon 

[JC-CT]

Just now, weathafella said:

And cold follows enhanced by nice region wide and Canadian snow cover.

One eye on late next week

[ineedsnow]

6 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Looks like a prolonged period of crap icing for many areas inland Sunday night, Monday AM, etc. Should be real nasty stuff with snow before and after. 

Close for here but may mix for awhile

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup. It’ll be over here/most in CT before the sun comes up imo.  Always go on the shorter range with these...that’s usually how it goes.  If it lasts longer, then it’s an even nicer surprise. 

With accumulations, yeah

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

00z Euro:

12z Euro ticked nw and warmer:

[ORH_wxman]

Also agree with Ryan RE: surface temps...:take the under for much of the region that is west of I-95 and north of about a PVD to HVN line. We may actually see temps fall during late Sunday night/predawn monday as the sfc low strengthens off to the southeast. 

[subdude]

In for a 2 round knockout. 

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There will probably be a lot of that the final 6-8 hours. Wouldn't surprise me if weenie flakes linger much of the day Tuesday in eastern areas. But the accumulating stuff is probably ending early Tuesday morning there. 

Yeah, and also I should preface it by saying for SNE. I'm sure Jeff has his eye on Tuesday morning.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12z UK for those who asked:

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

One eye on late next week

There’s big talk of that cutting 

[CT Rain]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Also agree with Ryan RE: surface temps...:take the under for much of the region that is west of I-95 and north of about a PVD to HVN line. We may actually see temps fall during late Sunday night/predawn monday as the sfc low strengthens off to the southeast. 

I mean I can foresee a 12-18 hour of sleet/freezing rain here before we go back to snow. 

[snowgeek]

Consistent 1.5 - 2” QPF here in Albany county. Getting exciterated. Love these stall and captures. I’m as excited about tracking this one as I am about experiencing it locally. Fun times ahead!!!


.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

I mean I can foresee a 12-18 hour of sleet/freezing rain here before we go back to snow. 

I thought hi res euro shows that well. Much of CT even into NYC cools off. Inland just west of BOS down to SW CT certainly below 32. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CT Rain said:

I mean I can foresee a 12-18 hour of sleet/freezing rain here before we go back to snow. 

Yeah the ageo component is already like due north by late Sunday night and prob NNW or NW by Monday morning...that's gonna just rapidly drain those 20s right to like HVN if they do creep above freezing for a time before that. So may have to watch for a flash freeze there...further north, HFD area prob never makes it above freezing is my guess. 

[CT Rain]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the ageo component is already like due north by late Sunday night and prob NNW or NW by Monday morning...that's gonna just rapidly drain those 20s right to like HVN if they do creep above freezing for a time before that. So may have to watch for a flash freeze there...further north, HFD area prob never makes it above freezing is my guess. 

Agreed about HVN. Would prefer a somewhat better high to the north for the best drain to the coast but still that's a cold look... take the under across board back this way.

Nice thump, prolonged mix, mid level magic on back end. Nice H5/H7 low tracks especially for W CT... but probably fun for many. 

[PaulyFromPlattsburgh]

EURO takes big steps towards ICON and puts most of Vermont and NNY in the game for snows!!

[weathafella]

Ray’s vendor has the most reasonable clowns.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CT Rain said:

Agreed about HVN. Would prefer a somewhat better high to the north for the best drain to the coast but still that's a cold look... take the under across board back this way.

Nice thump, prolonged mix, mid level magic on back end. Nice H5/H7 low tracks especially for W CT... but probably fun for many. 

Yeah the late Monday and Monday night stuff is interesting...the midlevel tracks have been consistently pretty good despite the little qpf maxima shifting around quite a bit. I could see some overperfing fluff bands in that as midlevel soundings get really nice for a while. A lot of it depends on the little vortmaxima pinwheeling around the ULL too. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weathafella said:

Ray’s vendor has the most reasonable clowns.

Ukie one looks off over a lot off central and Easter SNE but that is probably not the clown map's fault...More a function of the Ukie torching the lower levels. It frequently seems to do that in coastals. 

[JC-CT]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s big talk of that cutting 

Like, font size?

[weathafella]

I just reviewed euro 700/850/925.  925s stay south of the pike by a decent margin event wide.  700 is fine.  850 comes up to just at the pike and then recedes south.   This can easily be a bigger event than those snow maps say in greater Boston particularly pike region 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

I just reviewed euro 700/850/925.  925s stay south of the pike by a decent margin event wide.  700 is fine.  850 comes up to just at the pike and then recedes south.   This can easily be a bigger event than those snow maps say in greater Boston particularly pike region 

Uh huh. Yup.

[mahk_webstah]

27 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

One eye on late next week

I noticed a low in the southern stream moving out of the southern plains, on the WPC map

[40/70 Benchmark]

I strongly sense a Boxing day vibe from the EURO.....850mb fronto in CT river valley, and surface fronto in association with cf in metro Boston

[powderfreak]

ICON/UKMET/EURO starting to bump up the QPF.  

Heres the north trend .

[Hoth]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I strongly sense a Boxing day vibe from the EURO.....850mb fronto in CT river valley, and surface fronto in association with cf in metro Boston

Music to my ears. Not.

[CoastalWx]

Congrats PF. 

[TalcottWx]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I strongly sense a Boxing day vibe from the EURO.....850mb fronto in CT river valley, and surface fronto in association with cf in metro Boston

Same

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Congrats PF. 

He's lurking in the weeds waiting for the token uber amped euro run that jackpots him to Hermiker NY. 

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

I’ll take the Crazy Uncles qpf idea here for sure...around 2” is no joke.  Every model seems to have a healthy dose of qpf for this area...we take for sure.  And if it’s mostly frozen like it looks to be currently...I’m great with what I see. 

Hey neighbor...plainville here. Hoping for the same. Up at about 500 ft. Not sure if that will play a role on all snow..or some mixing, but, for Defember first.. I'll take it for sure!