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Coastal Storm Dec 1-2


Ralph Wiggum
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Just now, RedSky said:

My forecast was cut and looking at radar trends and 18z runs the 3-6" warning is a bust although 3" is a remote chance. Welcome winter! :lol:

 

 

Got that one epic fail out of the way early. Seems years where our first is a surprise or overperformer the rest of the season sucks. Let's hope the opposite rings true here.

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Got that one epic fail out of the way early. Seems years where our first is a surprise or overperformer the rest of the season sucks. Let's hope the opposite rings true here.

Worst thing is i saw this setup as a snowball chance in hell of performing five days ago, then all the fantasy model outputs for days, only to end as a melted snowball in hell.

 

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3 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Worst thing is i saw this setup as a snowball chance in hell of performing five days ago, then all the fantasy model outputs for days, only to end as a melted snowball in hell.

 

These occluding stalled systems almost always fail. Precip shield is never as expensive as modeled, radar usually ragged,  and the jackpot zone is almost never where modeled and a relatively small area.

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

Man this one hurts, Warned for 4-8” in Mercer county,  NJ and we literally got nothing. Hoping to salvage an inch of scraps on the back end as the HRRR alludes to but at this point I’m thinking this one is game, set, set and match. We are really overdue for a nice cold Miller A to bury the whole sub. 

Yeah, I was just thinking, Trenton area got this the worst.

NWS:

4-8 inches

Well actually 2-4 more even though nothing is on the ground.

Well maybe 1-2.....well no actually the precip is done.

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2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

The Pocono's and upstate PA got it the worst as far as expectations, has the ECM ever failed this bad. Dead in that forum too like they could care less lol.

 

 

Was pretty much across the board on models for that area. Weird that all mesos failed within 18 hours of the event like this. But thus is the Miller B-hybrid occluded slp.

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It has snowed very lightly much of the day with little on the radar. A couple hundred feet lower at my son's school it was just drizzle. That said with some of those pivot bands making it back in this direction the snow has picked up as you can see below - might get another coating like this AM...

Backyard.20191202_182302.jpg

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It’s currently 33 here. We’ve had snow this evening, but it’s soaking wet outside now. The snowfall isn’t heavy enough (It’s really flurries) to lay on the ground at all. Disappointing to be sure.

Still. I rather like Wiggum’s words about having a disappointing early storm paving the way for a nice winter this year  as opposed to the opposite that happened last year. 

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