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Coastal Storm Dec 1-2


Ralph Wiggum
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Looks like the potential is there across guidance for an event Dec 1-2. Going to come down to HL ridging/blocking as the ULL bowls East. Strong enough ridging to the N from S Central Canada across SE Greenland (bridge) could force far enough S to redevelop in a favorable spot. Ens and ops are starting to key on decent ridging with mslp developing off of VA Beach. WAA band could provide snow to begin then need to see how things evolve irt how the coastal will play out. Looks rather dynamic. More later gotta run:

 

gfs_z500a_namer_23.png

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GFS all alone makes me weary about this threat right now. Still good trends today across all models. Think the most likely solution though is a brief period of WAA snow followed by a  cold rain at this time save for Northern areas. Marginal events in early december just don't usually work out in our favor. Give me this pattern from mid dec- Feb though and we'll score more often than not.

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The primary into the lakes in early December is always going to be majority rain for us. Why people are falling for errant runs of the snow happy GFS I don't know. Those GFS runs showing a secondary forming and moving southeast were lol. Now later in the season you get a mixed bad situation that is better further north.

  

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23 minutes ago, RedSky said:

The primary into the lakes in early December is always going to be majority rain for us. Why people are falling for errant runs of the snow happy GFS I don't know. 

  

@RedSky is out on this potential....noted

Euro came south with the ULL pass in a beautiful spot much like the GEFS.  EPS should be interesting. Looks like a 13-14 situation where models are playing catchup irt surface as things progress along. Again, if the ULL trends and H5 height adjustments continue at HL the surface will catch up to the upper levels. Really good trends today and wouldnt be surprised to start seeing some weenie runs over the next few days. If this were winter climo I would be all in. Going to be interesting tho with a dynamic energetic ull situation so anything could happen. Would be foolish to just assume this will be one particular precip type at this point. Potential is there for some surprises.

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Not many changes, still a marginal situation and a bit early irt prime climo. Low should track towards the GL then redevelop off the S NJ coast thanks to ridging in the N Atl. WAA could yield some frozen to start in spots then over to rain for most outside of higher elevations especially well N and W. Coastal gets cranking but probably too late to help with much accumulating snow outside of elevated areas again far N (and W pending track). Seems the general consensus at this point anyway. Good to dust off the tracking links early anyway. Pattern certainly looks active moving into early December and as we head farther into December and winter climo.

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5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not many changes, still a marginal situation and a bit early irt prime climo. Low should track towards the GL then redevelop off the S NJ coast thanks to ridging in the N Atl. WAA could yield some frozen to start in spots then over to rain for most outside of higher elevations especially well N and W. Coastal gets cranking but probably too late to help with much accumulating snow outside of elevated areas again far N (and W pending track). Seems the general consensus at this point anyway. Good to dust off the tracking links early anyway. Pattern certainly looks active moving into early December and as we head farther into December and winter climo.

Ralph - Wasn't this supposed to develop off the Virginia Capes?

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Hard NOT to be surprised at the last few euro/eps/ggem/ukie runs tbh. It isnt very often that we get systems to trend in our favor.....which is why I am still on the fence irt Philly proper. If this continues thru 12z fri, it is probably time to jump all-in. The euro showing 6-10" up here is certainly something to be thankful for on this Thanksgiving. We take for now.

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EPS was a nice tick S as well. Warning criteria snow up here. My gut wants to say we are seeing the windshield wiper effect. But my brain says the S trend may be legit as there is now a banana high appearing across most guidance. If that feature is real and continues to appear on future runs, we may be in business. Interesting.

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