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December 2019


NYCweatherNOW
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On 12/15/2019 at 6:36 PM, eduggs said:

The best wintry event between now and Christmas might end up being the arctic front on Wednesday.

 

On 12/16/2019 at 4:40 AM, eduggs said:

There could be some good snow squalls on Wednesday evening.  The hi-res models are picking it up nicely.  Even the globals show some QPF for the area with the arctic frontal passage despite local downsloping.  I'm thinking there could be isolated 1-2" accumulations.  Upslope regions further up the taconics and also NNW NJ and NEPA are preferred but some squalls should make it to the coast.

Obviously snow lovers want big storms not isolated squalls.  But a ground whitening is always nice around Christmas time.

Well the squalls always hit some areas more than others.  But overall the front and snow shower activity was well modeled since last weekend.

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17 minutes ago, eduggs said:

 

Well the squalls always hit some areas more than others.  But overall the front and snow shower activity was well modeled since last weekend.

There I was feeling proud of myself for thinking on Monday morning that there was a lot of potential for this evening's squalls, but I see you beat me by 12 hours.  I completely agree that they were well modeled for days.  One look at the soundings rather than the placement on a simulated radar highlighted the potential.

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Next 8 days are averaging 36.5degs., or about 1deg. AN.

Month to date is  -1.5[38.0].         Should be about  -0.7[37.6] by the 27th.

16* here at 6am.    17* at 7am.   18* by 9am.     20* by 11am.      25* by 2pm.    26* at 3pm.      24* by 6pm.

None of our major models has any fun and games for the next 8 to 10 days, either snow wise or T-wise.      What is a board (bored) suppose to do?

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1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days are averaging 36.5degs., or about 1deg. AN.

Month to date is  -1.5[38.0].         Should be about  -0.7[37.6] by the 27th.

16* here at 6am.

None of our major models has any fun and games for the next 8 to 10 days, either snow wise or T-wise.      What is a board (bored) suppose to do?

 

Maybe this our chance to take a well-deserved break? 

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In a decade defined by December warmth, the 16 in NYC is the 2nd coldest December minimum of the 2010’s. The last week of 2017 holds the record for lowest December temperatures of the decade. NYC had 6 consecutive December days below freezing with a low of 9.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
2019 16 13
2018 24 0
2017 9 0
2016 17 0
2015 34 0
2014 24 0
2013 19 0
2012 28 0
2011 22 0
2010 19 0

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature
2017-12-26 28 23
2017-12-27 24 17
2017-12-28 18 11
2017-12-29 22 11
2017-12-30 23 17
2017-12-31 21 9

 

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The TeleConnections for the three major model ensemble means thru Jan. 04 are similar and not very flattering:

AO, NAO >>>>>    -  to +     PNA >>>>>neutral.   EPO, WPO >>>>>   +     The GFS Control Member does fall off the shelf in Jan. to a -6sd. on the EPO.

btw:  Australia is having its problems with a record heatwave after a two year drought caused by the positive IOD.     Nationwide average T may exceed previous record of 104.5 today.    All-time high may pass 122 today also.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

In a decade defined by December warmth, the 16 in NYC is the 2nd coldest December minimum of the 2010’s. The last week of 2017 holds the record for lowest December temperatures of the decade. NYC had 6 consecutive December days below freezing with a low of 9.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
2019 16 13
2018 24 0
2017 9 0
2016 17 0
2015 34 0
2014 24 0
2013 19 0
2012 28 0
2011 22 0
2010 19 0

 

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature
2017-12-26 28 23
2017-12-27 24 17
2017-12-28 18 11
2017-12-29 22 11
2017-12-30 23 17
2017-12-31 21 9

 

I do get your point but in effect this morning becomes the 4th lowest December minimum of the 2010's. Your wording made it sound like it was the second lowest although I get what you meant.

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8 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I do get your point but in effect this morning becomes the 4th lowest December minimum of the 2010's. Your wording made it sound like it was the second lowest although I get what you meant.

Yeah, the 2nd lowest by year. Only 2017 dropped below 16 degrees.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We’ll have to wait and see what happens in early January following the milder MJO passage in late December.  
 

72FD9CCB-466F-4014-AC77-BCA0B8169777.thumb.png.6d942e9bf5a7a4e02c75d402becf5c86.png
44B1791D-0B07-4F4A-ACF0-A7A28A29AED4.thumb.png.a57264b3b1afc0cb278fb9818394be4f.png

Talk about a healthy spread! On a side note I have been comparing the GEFS to ECMWF. GEFS seems to follow the ecmwf, as the GEFS seems to get stuck in phases.

440189882_ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full(1).gif.511a0914f90c3fff17c80b1f0434ef0a.gif

 

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4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

didn't we have a blizzard in 2017 followed by a few weeks of cold? I remember the snow cover for weeks

The blizzard came at the end of the cold snap-we were below freezing 12/25 to 1/5 or something like that.   it warmed after the storm, but the snowcover did last awhile

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