purduewx80 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 28 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, a weak and well timed SWFE type storm would be the best bet. I am not sure if that Euro NAO chart you posted uses the same methodology as the official CPC data we rely on. I know several weather model vendors that have their own custom teleconnection indices that vary from the CPC. So non CPC sources can have a big difference from those GEFS forecasts due to calculation methodology alone. Yes, thanks for pointing this out. We do also have a comparison/trend series of EPS/GEFS/GEPS using the same methodology - can't post it but the differences are less stark. EPS has the NAO bottoming out at -0.68, the GEFS at -0.56 and the GEPS at -0.42, all on Dec 19th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 15 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: I just want to clarify the last two events have left snow behind for a large chunk of the area This is certainly the most extreme snowfall gradient between Albany and NYC for early December. Time Series Summary for Albany Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Dec 1 to Dec 11 NYC Snowfall 1 2019-12-11 24.5 1.8 2 2003-12-11 19.2 14.0 3 1977-12-11 13.9 T 4 1926-12-11 12.7 9.4 5 2014-12-11 11.7 1.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 23° here this am...Notice pressure at 30.74" my friends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 47 minutes ago, doncat said: 23° here this am...Notice pressure at 30.74" my friends? I did not, thank you for pointing it out. Mongolia is lovely this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 26 here but I'm closer to the water... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 hour ago, bluewave said: This is certainly the most extreme snowfall gradient between Albany and NYC for early December. Time Series Summary for Albany Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Dec 1 to Dec 11 NYC Snowfall 1 2019-12-11 24.5 1.8 2 2003-12-11 19.2 14.0 3 1977-12-11 13.9 T 4 1926-12-11 12.7 9.4 5 2014-12-11 11.7 1.0 thanks for the analysis! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 2003 NYC snowfall got off to a fast start and at one point it had the most snow for the season from 12/14-19...it went ahead of 1898 and was passed by 1948... 10/10/1979/1925...trace... 10/13/1979/1925/1937...trace... 10/15/1876.....0.5" 10/20/1952/1876...0.5" 10/29/2011.....2.9" 11/07/2012.....4.3" 11/08/2012.....4.7" 11/25/1938.....8.8" 11/26/1938.....9.3" 11/27/1898...13.0" 11/30/1898...19.0" 12/12/1898...19.5" 12/14/2003...19.8" 12/20/1948...21.3" 12/25/1883...22.6" 12/26/1947...29.3" 12/31/1872...30.5" 01/07/1948...32.9" 01/13/1948...33.3" 01/14/1948...35.1" 01/18/1948...37.8" 01/21/1948...39.4" 01/26/2011...49.4" 01/27/2011...56.1" 02/01/2011...57.2" 02/02/2011...57.7" 02/16/1996...60.9" 02/17/1996...61.7" 03/02/1996...66.3" 03/08/1996...70.8" 03/28/1996...71.1" 03/29/1996...74.9" 04/09/1996...75.2" 04/10/1996...75.6" 04/30/1996...75.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Next weeks storm looks like another non event for the coast, brief mix or snow to rain. Again an interesting storm inland but seems more icy than snowy. Yes I know it can change but this seems to be the pattern so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: Next weeks storm looks like another non event for the coast, brief mix or snow to rain. Again an interesting storm inland but seems more icy than snowy. Yes I know it can change but this seems to be the pattern so far this year. It’ll be a solid event if the system is weak and not too amped. Could see a 3-6 inch event before the turnover in that case 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Gfs again shows a big snow event for pre xmas. It keeps showing this for several runs. It has support from the AO and NAO but still a while to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs again shows a big snow event for pre xmas. It keeps showing this for several runs. It has support from the AO and NAO but still a while to go. Yes will definitely change many times but that QPF is pretty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: Yes will definitely change many times but that QPF is pretty Boston is demolished Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 19 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs again shows a big snow event for pre xmas. It keeps showing this for several runs. It has support from the AO and NAO but still a while to go. If only long range could be more accurate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 26 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs again shows a big snow event for pre xmas. It keeps showing this for several runs. It has support from the AO and NAO but still a while to go. If I had a dollar for every fantasy blizzard... Do not go beyond 4-5 days in this pattern. Next week is still a toss up. If blocking ends up stronger then it'll hold the 50/50 in place and we'd get a good front end hit. Seems possible with AO trending downward. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 2 hours ago, bluewave said: When you start seeing day 10 warm ups getting pushed back, then you know we could actually have a rare cold departure December. Notice how the cold has been finding a way to hold on over the Northeast portion of the country. The record +IOD and no big amped up MJO 4-6 may be helping our cause. While the models are going to a more -AO, the NAO is still forecast to remain closer to neutral. So we usually need help from the -NAO this time of year to allow a rapidly deepening benchmark low storm track. The strong Pacific flow with +EPO can also push the PNA ridge axis too far east. This could result in coastal storm track suppression. Our best bet for snow may continue to be a weak and well timed SFWE type system. Cold holding in over the Northeast Day 10 warm up getting pushed back today was the 15th day with a minimum 32 or lower in NYC...8 so far in December...not bad for this pattern so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 A 950 MB east coast blizzard ... sure, why the hell not. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: If I had a dollar for every fantasy blizzard... Do not go beyond 4-5 days in this pattern. Next week is still a toss up. If blocking ends up stronger then it'll hold the 50/50 in place and we'd get a good front end hit. Seems possible with AO trending downward. Agree but it's nice to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 the ao forecast has members diving really low the week before Christmas...that would be great timing if it happens...White Christmas odds just went up... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 59 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs again shows a big snow event for pre xmas. It keeps showing this for several runs. It has support from the AO and NAO but still a while to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Just now, NEG NAO said: Juno redux and march 2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Any update on the storm next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 18 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Juno redux and march 2001 I am booking my hotel in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Gfs again shows a big snow event for pre xmas. It keeps showing this for several runs. It has support from the AO and NAO but still a while to go. But the Euro and CMC still don’t have anything. All the models handle the teleconnections slightly differently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said: Any update on the storm next week? We will be singing "ice ice baby" away from the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 hour ago, Dark Star said: thanks for the analysis! No problem. So far it’s the reverse of January 2016. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall ALB Snowfall 1 2011 36.0 34.4 2 2016 27.9 3.3 3 1925 27.4 26.6 4 1996 26.1 28.4 5 1923 24.5 34.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: But the Euro and CMC still don’t have anything. All the models handle the teleconnections slightly differently. Gefs is slowly coming on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gefs is slowly coming on board The Euro and CMC have the PNA ridge axis further east than the GEFS. So they have waves that amplify too far to the east offshore. Need to slow that Pacific Jet down so the ridge can pull back far enough to the west. But I am weary of relying on that raging Pacific Jet to relax enough to make things work out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 49 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro and CMC have the PNA ridge axis further east than the GEFS. So they have waves that amplify too far to the east offshore. Need to slow that Pacific Jet down so the ridge can pull back far enough to the west. But I am weary of relying on that raging Pacific Jet to relax enough to make things work out. Euro is slowly coming on board. Check out how cold it is on the 12z euro run compared to earlier runs. The ridge is also pumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro is slowly coming on board. Check out how cold it is on the 12z euro run compared to earlier runs. The ridge is also pumped. While it’s colder, the disturbance is more northern stream going through the Great Lakes rather than the GFS southern stream. But all models agree in the colder day 8-10 day trends from earlier runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: While it’s colder, the disturbance is more northern stream going through the Great Lakes rather than the GFS southern stream. But all models agree in the colder day 8-10 day trends from earlier runs. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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