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December 2019


NYCweatherNOW
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Another top 10 year for days with measurable precipitation in NYC. On track for a top 5 finish following the 1st place finish last year.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Precipitation >= .01 
Missing Count
1 2018 158 0
2 1996 152 0
3 1972 145 0
4 2003 142 0
5 2008 141 0
- 1950 141 0
6 1938 140 0
- 1920 140 0
- 1898 140 0
7 1919 139 0
8 1956 138 0
- 2019 138 22
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32 minutes ago, ny10019 said:

this would have been quite the snow event. 

It’s been a while.The last 1.00”+ liquid equivalent snow event in NYC during December was in 2010.

Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Precipitation 
Snowfall 
2010-12-26 1.09 12.2
2010-12-27 0.52 7.8

 

 

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Tomorrow will be very mild in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England region. Temperatures should top out in the upper 50s in southern New England and lower 60s in much of the Middle Atlantic region. This unseasonable warmth will be short-lived. 

 

As the front slowly moves eastward, a wave could develop along the front bringing parts of the region a light snowfall late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia could be in line for perhaps an inch or two of slushy snow, especially on grassy surfaces. Outside the cities, a general 2"-4" with locally higher amounts appears possible. Lesser amounts remain possible should the arrival of the cold air be somewhat delayed.

 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around December 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. These recent conditions are consistent with a weak El Niño. Nevertheless, a neutral ENSO remains the base case for Winter 2019-20 and the recent cooling in Region 3.4 suggests that the base case remains viable.

 

The SOI was -4.72 today.

 

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.922.

 

In the long-range, there is disagreement among the guidance. The GEFS is colder than the EPS. The latest week 2 and 3 forecasts for the CFSv2 have moved dramatically away from the severe cold that prior runs had shown. The progression of the MJO over the next 10 days and the evolution of the AO could provide insight.

 

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through December 18. Wave 2 activity is forecast to remain suppressed and the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold past mid-month on the EPS. According to NCEP, the correlation of 16-day 10 mb GFS temperature forecasts is near 0.25 (much worse than flipping a coin). 5 mb forecasts have an even lower correlation.

 

When it comes to New York City's 4" or greater snowstorms the PNA is more important than the AO during the first half of December. Since 1950, December 1-15 has seen 10 storms bring 4.0" or more snow to New York City. 50% occurred with an AO- or AO+. However, 80% occurred when the PNA was positive. All 6" or greater snowstorms during this timeframe occurred when the PNA was positive. The December 1-3 storm occurred with a negative PNA and Central Park received 1.6" snow. During the second half of December, larger snowstorms have occurred with a negative PNA.

 

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Next 8 days are averaging 41degs., or about 3degs. AN.  (used 57/40) for today.

Month to date is  -3.5[37.5].          Should be about -0.5[39.2] by the 18th.

Main models are 1" to 4" for tomorrow, with a really big show promised for the 18th.

58* here at 5am.     57* at 6am.       Still 57* by 9am.      58* at 11am, Noon.       53* by 8pm.     47* by 10pm.

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17 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

A few storms to watch.  This has been an active December. 

It’s been an active last few years. NYC is on track to reach 50 inches of precipitation for the 2nd year in a row. 

Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2018 2.18 5.83 5.17 5.78 3.53 3.11 7.45 8.59 6.19 3.59 7.62 6.51 65.55
2019 3.58 3.14 3.87 4.55 6.82 5.46 5.77 3.70 0.95 6.15 1.95 2.69 48.63
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55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The dominant story since 2018 continues to be the raging Pacific Jet. Next soaking rainfall possible on the weekend. 

We touched on this last week ( new research ) about the MJO cycling through the colder phases quicker, with more time spent in the warmer phases courtesy of the West Pac warm pool. Do you have any idea when, or if the Pac Jet will slow down, or is that outcome unlikely? 

I know you saw the too the record + IOD is weakening. 

On a side note, actually seems up next might be the development of a West based - NAO and after the weekend rainstorm a potential winter storm threat.   

     

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The dominant story since 2018 continues to be the raging Pacific Jet. Next soaking rainfall possible on the weekend. 
 

9C38F68A-3EBA-471B-AF93-706C56645C36.thumb.png.ada3c4a69780255161b2074aa24e6d17.png

 

It's amazing how much precipitation we have had with no apparent end in sight.

IMO this is actually helping us score some light snowfalls (last Monday, tomorrow), with a POTENTIAL for a heavy event next week. Hard not to score some snow events in winter when precipitation is in abundance, even if the air is more Pacific in nature.

 

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4 hours ago, frd said:

We touched on this last week ( new research ) about the MJO cycling through the colder phases quicker, with more time spent in the warmer phases courtesy of the West Pac warm pool. Do you have any idea when, or if the Pac Jet will slow down, or is that outcome unlikely? 

I know you saw the too the record + IOD is weakening. 

On a side note, actually seems up next might be the development of a West based - NAO and after the weekend rainstorm a potential winter storm threat.   

     

There may be another storm around the 17th. Root for the storm this weekend to become the 50/50 for it. That could allow high pressure to stay anchored over the Northeast. But I am weary of day 8 colder solutions. We have seen these correct warmer closer in recently. 
 

 

 

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MJO avoiding the warmer phases thus far, some have it looping around toward the better phases from the circle last week of December.

This is noticeably different than last year which had it going through 4-6 and lingering there for weeks. 

This could be why a -AO/neutral NAO are showing up 2nd half of December. Personally I'm a fan of this progression and it's why January could be a surprisingly good month. 

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29 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

It's amazing how much precipitation we have had with no apparent end in sight.

IMO this is actually helping us score some light snowfalls (last Monday, tomorrow), with a POTENTIAL for a heavy event next week. Hard not to score some snow events in winter when precipitation is in abundance, even if the air is more Pacific in nature.

 

This is reminding me of a December 1986 pattern with a negative EPO and plus AO, NAO regime with frequent rainstorms that month.  Lived in Central Mass that time and highly disappointed.  However, Jan 87 had the switch flipped to snow and we had a record 70 inches for that month alone in Worcester, MA.  It was snowstorm after snowstorm.  Not saying this will happen in Jan 20, but with a very vigorous and moisture generous pattern, I think we will all score big at least once. 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It’s been an active last few years. NYC is on track to reach 50 inches of precipitation for the 2nd year in a row. 

Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2018 2.18 5.83 5.17 5.78 3.53 3.11 7.45 8.59 6.19 3.59 7.62 6.51 65.55
2019 3.58 3.14 3.87 4.55 6.82 5.46 5.77 3.70 0.95 6.15 1.95 2.69 48.63

50" is average since 1971...

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2 minutes ago, uncle W said:

50" is average since 1971...

This looks like the first 2 years in a row for NYC to reach 50 inches of precipitation this decade. 

Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2019 3.58 3.14 3.87 4.55 6.82 5.46 5.77 3.70 0.95 6.15 1.95 2.69 48.63
2018 2.18 5.83 5.17 5.78 3.53 3.11 7.45 8.59 6.19 3.59 7.62 6.51 65.55
2017 4.83 2.48 5.25 3.84 6.38 4.76 4.19 3.34 2.00 4.18 1.58 2.21 45.04
2016 4.41 4.40 1.17 1.61 3.75 2.60 7.02 1.97 2.79 4.15 5.41 2.89 42.17
2015 5.23 2.04 4.72 2.08 1.86 4.79 3.98 2.35 3.28 3.91 2.01 4.72 40.97
2014 2.79 5.48 3.67 7.85 4.37 4.26 5.59 2.25 1.21 5.77 4.51 6.04 53.79
2013 2.76 4.25 2.90 1.31 8.00 10.10 2.84 2.85 2.95 0.36 3.15 4.85 46.32
2012 3.23 1.37 0.96 3.56 5.38 2.97 4.21 2.91 4.39 2.92 1.81 4.80 38.51
2011 4.93 3.47 6.19 5.35 5.11 3.25 3.03 18.95 9.39 6.09 3.05 4.00 72.81
2010 2.08 6.69 10.69 2.99 3.01 2.20 2.60 4.14 3.67 4.91 2.15 4.24 49.37
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Just now, bluewave said:

This looks like the first 2 years in a row for NYC to reach 50 inches of precipitation this decade. 

Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
2019 3.58 3.14 3.87 4.55 6.82 5.46 5.77 3.70 0.95 6.15 1.95 2.69 48.63
2018 2.18 5.83 5.17 5.78 3.53 3.11 7.45 8.59 6.19 3.59 7.62 6.51 65.55
2017 4.83 2.48 5.25 3.84 6.38 4.76 4.19 3.34 2.00 4.18 1.58 2.21 45.04
2016 4.41 4.40 1.17 1.61 3.75 2.60 7.02 1.97 2.79 4.15 5.41 2.89 42.17
2015 5.23 2.04 4.72 2.08 1.86 4.79 3.98 2.35 3.28 3.91 2.01 4.72 40.97
2014 2.79 5.48 3.67 7.85 4.37 4.26 5.59 2.25 1.21 5.77 4.51 6.04 53.79
2013 2.76 4.25 2.90 1.31 8.00 10.10 2.84 2.85 2.95 0.36 3.15 4.85 46.32
2012 3.23 1.37 0.96 3.56 5.38 2.97 4.21 2.91 4.39 2.92 1.81 4.80 38.51
2011 4.93 3.47 6.19 5.35 5.11 3.25 3.03 18.95 9.39 6.09 3.05 4.00 72.81
2010 2.08 6.69 10.69 2.99 3.01 2.20 2.60 4.14 3.67 4.91 2.15 4.24 49.37

NYC decade precipitation averages since 1870...my stats for precipitation...
10 yr.............Ave. per year. lowest and highest year
1870's..............43.73"........39.25".......51.26"
1880's..............43.54"........35.37".......57.16"
1890's..............41.84"........35.37".......48.26"
1900's..............44.84"........37.44".......58.32"
1910's..............44.24"........33.72".......58.00"
1920's..............44.92"........37.76".......56.06"
1930's..............44.60"........33.85".......53.53"
1940's..............42.16"........36.24".......48.51"
1950's..............39.59"........35.58".......45.20"
1960's..............39.74"........26.09".......48.54"
1970's..............52.31"........35.29".......67.03"
1980's..............49.96"........38.11".......80.56"
1990's..............47.29"........40.42".......60.92"
2000's..............53.18"........35.92".......61.70"

2010's..............50.50"........38.51".......72.81" 2010-18

 

1956-1965.......36.87"........26.09".......46.39"

2002-2011.......56.27"........45.21".......72.81"

1870-
2009................45.14"
1980-
2009................50.14"
1870-
1969................42.92"
1970-
2009................50.64"

...........................................................................................................................................
1826-1864 from Jamiaca N.Y...1865-1868- Central Park...
years.................ave..........lowest........highest
1826-1835.......37.95"........28.78"........55.67"
1836-1845.......36.67"........32.13"........44.57"
1846-1855.......39.50"........30.08"........46.40"
1856-1865.......41.30"........31.08"........59.68"
1866-1869.......48.57"........38.26"........57.40" 4yr ave...

........................................................................................

..Here are the wettest months...
amount month year...

10.10" June 2013
18.95" August 2011
10.69" March 2010
13.05" April 2007
16.73" October 2005
11.51" September 2004
10.27" June 2003
12.36" August 1990
10.24" May 1989
14.01" April 1983
10.54" March 1983
10.41" March 1980
10.52" January 1979
12.26" November 1977
11.77" July 1975
12.41" November 1972
10.86" August 1955
10.30" September 1944
11.96" September 1934
10.09" September 1933
12.97" October 1913
13.31" October 1903
11.89" July 1889
16.85" September 1882

...................................................................................................................

rainfall in NYC from a tropical storm/hurricane...
date.................amount........
Sept 1882.......10.63"
Sept 1944.........7.76" great Atlantic hurricane
Aug 2011..........6.87" Irene
Aug 1955..........6.32" Connie
Aug 1971..........5.96" Doria
Sept 1938.........5.74"
Sept 1934.........5.48"
Sept 1999.........5.44" Floyd
Aug 1879..........4.59"
Aug 1976..........4.28" Belle
Oct 1877...........4.07"
Aug 1893..........3.94"
Sept 1904.........3.85"
Aug 1991..........3.72" Bob
Sept 1985.........3.58" Gloria
July 1960..........3.56"
Sept 1954.........3.30" Carol
Sept 1960.........2.42" Donna

.............................................................

List of wettest weeks in NYC.
13.02" 10/08-14/2005
12.23" 09/20-26/1882
12.13" 10/07-13/1903
..9.96" 08/05-11/1990
..9.85" 04/12-16/2007
..9.66" 11/04-10/1977

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