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December 2019


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11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Haha. I remember the discussion last year about November snows killing winter. Worked for us in 2002 and 1995 and 2012. Worked against us in 1989 2011 and last year.

2002 though NYC saw nothing and 1995 it was like 11/29 or 11/30.  I think there’s definitely at least in a small sample size that if NYC sees measurable snow before 11/25 or so it has tended to not work out too well for the ensuing winter but much like the when August averages warmer in July the winter always torches for the area it’s only a sample of about 5-10 years 

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11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Haha. I remember the discussion last year about November snows killing winter. Worked for us in 2002 and 1995 and 2012. Worked against us in 1989 2011 and last year.

I will look on the positive side. That November snow prevented parts of the area from finishing the season in the single digits.

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8
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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I will look on the positive side. That November snow prevented parts of the area from finishing the season in the single digits.

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8

Huge gradient last year it seems. In SW Coastal CT we had 22, 8 below the 30 to 35 average range.

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11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

2002 though NYC saw nothing and 1995 it was like 11/29 or 11/30.  I think there’s definitely at least in a small sample size that if NYC sees measurable snow before 11/25 or so it has tended to not work out too well for the ensuing winter but much like the when August averages warmer in July the winter always torches for the area it’s only a sample of about 5-10 years 

We came up with the idea (well Chris did) that it takes time for the pattern to reload, especially after such an anomalous early season snowfall.  If the first snowfall is later, then it's not so anomalous.

 

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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I will look on the positive side. That November snow prevented parts of the area from finishing the season in the single digits.

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8

Remember when we were saying JFK was coming close to having its earliest last snowfall lol?

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20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I will look on the positive side. That November snow prevented parts of the area from finishing the season in the single digits.

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
2018-2019 0.0 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8

Another way of looking at it is ISP got hosed in early March.  We got 12" over the first few days of the month which brought us from single digits to 21.7".

We had 4.5" in the November 15 snowfall.

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It may come down to what the MJO does. The GFS has a milder looking MJO forecast than the Euro. But these forecasts can change quite a bit over the course of a few days. 
 

F27D4EE8-8EFC-42C0-B25E-5904DE2EA847.gif.f8bcc352917ea2089836e8963e4caecf.gif

 

verbatim that's low amplitude which might mitigate the warmth a bit-last year was stronger if I'm remembering correctly

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From a hobbyist perspective, it seems like the theme of the past few years has been a general humbling of our ability to forecast general long-range weather patterns.  Certainly, LR models seem to miss the mark more often in the past two years or so.

 

(1) Is there something to this anecdote?

(2) If yes, is there some scientific basis for this?  (I was thinking maybe the MJO/PAC firehose is mucking things up.)

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Speaking of the LR, the latest EURO Weeklies are out and they better be wrong.         Both OP and Control like it BN in the western quarter of the country, and AN elsewhere, +2F for us on the next 46 days.      Christmas week did not look like a gift either.       Snowfall for the 6-Week+ period looked to be 3" to 10" in and around our geographically interested fan area.

From above post:

From the hobbyist perspective, it seems like the theme of the past few years has been a general humbling of our ability to forecast general long-range weather patterns.  Certainly, LR models seem to miss the mark more often in the past two years or so.

(1) Is there something to this anecdote?

(2) If yes, is there some scientific basis for this?  (I was thinking maybe the MJO/PAC firehose is mucking things up.)

 

>>>>My idea is the atmosphere is getting harder to predict faster than, the models can improve.      Think of shooting at your stationary target and the rating you have obtained----what happened when they started moving the target around?      You are still becoming a better shot even with the lower scores.

 

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Just now, CIK62 said:

Speaking of the LR, the latest EURO Weeklies are out and they better be wrong.         Both OP and Control like it BN in the western quarter of the country, and AN elsewhere, +2F for us on the next 46 days.      Christmas week did not look like a gift either.       Snowfall for the 6-Week+ period looked to be 3" to 10" in and around our geographically interested fan area.

 

From the hobbyist perspective, it seems like the theme of the past few years has been a general humbling of our ability to forecast general long-range weather patterns.  Certainly, LR models seem to miss the mark more often in the past two years or so.

(1) Is there something to this anecdote?

(2) If yes, is there some scientific basis for this?  (I was thinking maybe the MJO/PAC firehose is mucking things up.)

 

>>>>My idea is the atmosphere is getting harder to predict faster than, the models can improve.      Think of shooting at your stationary target and the rating you have obtained----what happened when they started moving the target around?      You are still becoming a better shot even with the lower scores.

 

Euro weeklies have been horrible  Eps has also been horrible. 

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2 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

Speaking of the LR, the latest EURO Weeklies are out and they better be wrong.         Both OP and Control like it BN in the western quarter of the country, and AN elsewhere, +2F for us on the next 46 days.      Christmas week did not look like a gift either.       Snowfall for the 6-Week+ period looked to be 3" to 10" in and around our geographically interested fan area.

From above post:

From the hobbyist perspective, it seems like the theme of the past few years has been a general humbling of our ability to forecast general long-range weather patterns.  Certainly, LR models seem to miss the mark more often in the past two years or so.

(1) Is there something to this anecdote?

(2) If yes, is there some scientific basis for this?  (I was thinking maybe the MJO/PAC firehose is mucking things up.)

 

>>>>My idea is the atmosphere is getting harder to predict faster than, the models can improve.      Think of shooting at your stationary target and the rating you have obtained----what happened when they started moving the target around?      You are still becoming a better shot even with the lower scores.

 

Felicitous choice of analogy!  Posts like these are why I love these boards.  Excellent convo all-around today.  Thanks!! :thumbsup:

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