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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Not a betting man here. But looking at things looks like the Pna isn't so negative more like neutral and the EPO is somewhat positive going though into neutral to negative. NAO and AO going sharply negative. Last year at this time it was very different. I know some are saying that we are heading into a super torch for Christmas. I think it's possible that the Euro model is not seeing the blocking that the gfs and other models are seeing. The Euro has been performing very badly the last couple of months. 

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I’m feeling at least a 2-4” are in the cards for SNE with this next storm before any mixed bag-o-crap gets involved.  Sort of a fine line. You don’t want too strong a s/w to blast the warm front north and change us over to fzra/ra and conversely you don’t want the s/w to weak such that the lift is so weak to not give us more then fzra/ip.

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

I’m feeling at least a 2-4” are in the cards for SNE with this next storm before any mixed bag-o-crap gets involved.  Sort of a fine line. You don’t want too strong a s/w to blast the warm front north and change us over to fzra/ra and conversely you don’t want the s/w to weak such that the lift is so weak to not give us more then fzra/ip.

Region wide 2-6" seems like a good bet right now, from Canada to the Sound.

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1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I’m feeling at least a 2-4” are in the cards for SNE with this next storm before any mixed bag-o-crap gets involved.  Sort of a fine line. You don’t want too strong a s/w to blast the warm front north and change us over to fzra/ra and conversely you don’t want the s/w to weak such that the lift is so weak to not give us more then fzra/ip.

2 to 4 one bite everyone knows the rules 

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12 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Where's @OceanStWx 

I actually don't know a whole lot about Mexican EML's but I think they're different than EML's originated in the southwest U.S. Obviously the processes are the same but I wonder what the differences are between Mexican EML and southwest US EML. 

You know it must be a good December if we're talking about EMLs ;)

Functionally I don't think there is any difference between the source region. What there has been some research into is the role aerosols play in worsening tornado outbreaks (hypothesis is that adding aerosols warms the lower levels, lowers LCLs, and increases wind shear). It's definitely an emerging area of research, but I think the Mexican aspect loops in because EMLs originating in that area tend of have more aerosols from Central American slash and burn operations.

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3 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Is it possible the Cape is in for a big blow this afternoon?

Seems like a pretty meh advisory for 50-55 knots 500 ft off the deck at CHH. There's a nice surge from the warm front this afternoon too. I think I'm taking the over on 55 mph wind gusts for the Cape/Islands.

Hayden's on it, high wind warnings for the Cape and Islands.

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