December 2019 Discussion

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

And your right, Wanted to mention this a while ago, But the 06z and 18z runs are not always lock step with the 0z and 12z run.

I dislike all off hour runs in general. From a weenie tracking standpoint, fun. But it’s information overload.

[dryslot]

Just now, weathafella said:

So it begs the old question...less up to date upper air data?  I thought that was no longer true?

I don’t know, I’ve noticed a lot more bigger shifts that the Euro makes on some of these runs then it use too when it was just being run twice daily.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

all of them lol

Those you can nail down and paint a “it gon rain” map at D7 and rest comfortably.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

So it begs the old question...less up to date upper air data?  I thought that was no longer true?

I don’t think it’s the old school thinking of lack of data. It’s got plenty of data with new satellites, remote sensing, aircraft etc.  I just think it’s the euro. They aren’t massive jumps, but something I’ve noticed. It could be right though. I’m not saying to discard it.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Those you can nail down and paint a “it gon rain” map at D7 and rest comfortably.

just slap on some green, crank open an IPA, and all it a day 

[dryslot]

This Rainer was well modeled for over 7 days, The only changes that there has been is with what it’s been spitting out for qpf and that seems to be on the rise unfortunately.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I don’t know, I’ve noticed a lot more bigger shifts that the Euro makes on some of these runs then it use too when it was just being run twice daily.

Well now you have more samples to see that too. So it makes it look probably more unstable than it is. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I don’t think it’s the old school thinking of lack of data. It’s got plenty of data with new satellites, remote sensing, aircraft etc.  I just think it’s the euro. They aren’t massive jumps, but something I’ve noticed. It could be right though. I’m not saying to discard it.

I thought I read something a few months back that the initialization process on the 6z/18z (Euro) was slightly different than the 0z/12z...like minor tweaks with parameterization. I'll have to see if I can find it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Agreed. 

Just going by climo, I doubt ice gets as far north as 00z euro depiction. .

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Well now you have more samples to see that too. So it makes it look probably more unstable than it is. 

I’m glad you brought that up though because I had notice some of these changes a while back and probably when the 2 runs came online that there were some differences only to revert back on the the other two runs, Euro use to make just subtle ticks one way or the other but now we seem to see some bigger shifts on times in the off hour runs.

[Ginx snewx]

06z Euro was last week the first to start to ramp up the nice 2 to 7 inch region wide snows we just had. 

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I thought this had overrunning potential a few days back but it hasn’t quiet showed up yet as I envisioned.

If it starts looking more like the 06z euro then it might yet still achieve that look. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Get the sandbags ready, Ginx!

* Heavy rain late tonight through Saturday morning will result in
  widespread 1.50 to 2.50 inches of rain. Localized higher amounts
  of 3 to 3.50 inches are possible. This will bring the potential
  for flooding, which will continue through the weekend on some
  rivers as a result of runoff.

I have been lighting up the signal for days but all the snow mania has dimmed it. Rivers and especially small streams are a concern.

[weatherwiz]

I want a good ice storm. when was the last real damaging ice storm we had? Dec 08? But even down in CT...can't really remember anything significant since 98...although there might have been a decent one in 2002?

[dryslot]

FFW were issued in the early morning AFD for here, I would have been more bummed if it was going to wipeout a pack we were trying to get established but that was taken out by the earlier week system.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I want a good ice storm. when was the last real damaging ice storm we had? Dec 08? But even down in CT...can't really remember anything significant since 98...although there might have been a decent one in 2002?

CT didn't get much of anything in 2008 except for the highest spots of Litchfield county. 

N CT had a pretty good one in early January 2005. I think it was 1/6/05. They also had the 11/17/02 ice storm. More elevation dependent. 

Id say parts of the state did pretty well on 12/23/17 as well. 

[dryslot]

Just getting caught up on the models for the Tuesday deal and have to say it’s pretty strung out and a weak system that’s not going to produce anything of significance as modeled right now, Need a stronger vort to come out of the southern steam but that will bring other problems with it too if the air mass is marginal.

[CoastalWx]

Tomorrow might be wedgy in a lot of areas. Some hi res guidance  have a meso low that keeps 30s and 40s inland. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Vanilla Ice on radio...omen?

[Hoth]

15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I want a good ice storm. when was the last real damaging ice storm we had? Dec 08? But even down in CT...can't really remember anything significant since 98...although there might have been a decent one in 2002?

We had a decent one down here last January. Not severe, but took a lot of branches and weak trees down.

[weatherwiz]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

CT didn't get much of anything in 2008 except for the highest spots of Litchfield county. 

N CT had a pretty good one in early January 2005. I think it was 1/6/05. They also had the 11/17/02 ice storm. More elevation dependent. 

Id say parts of the state did pretty well on 12/23/17 as well. 

CT just missed out in 2008. I don't remember the 2005 one...not sure why. The 2017 was pretty decent..wasn't far off from being a pretty significant deal. 

I remember the 1998 one quite well...that was fun

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Vanilla Ice on radio...omen?

Hopefully not. Terrible winter when that came out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully not. Terrible winter when that came out.

I just mean with respect to Tuesday. .

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just mean with respect to Tuesday. .

I know     Not sure about you, but I have this nostalgic feeling that happens when I hear certain songs. Dre and Snoop remind me of 92-93.  Then you have the grunge era that’s all 93-94 to me. 

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, Hoth said:

We had a decent one down here last January. Not severe, but took a lot of branches and weak trees down.

The cut-off was pretty crazy too...going from Branford to North Branford was nothing to ice on all the trees and wires 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I know     Not sure about you, but I have this nostalgic feeling that happens when I hear certain songs. Dre and Snoop remind me of 92-93.  Then you have the grunge era that’s all 93-94 to me. 

Yep....song for each winter..

[MaineJayhawk]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Vanilla Ice on radio...omen?

No, just poor choice of radio station

[Ginx snewx]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know     Not sure about you, but I have this nostalgic feeling that happens when I hear certain songs. Dre and Snoop remind me of 92-93.  Then you have the grunge era that’s all 93-94 to me. 

This is what Brian hears and thinks of 2019

 

[MJO812]

6z Euro has some front end for many areas for the 17th

[TheCloser24]

CT actually had a significant ice storm in January 2009. There were some power outages and a few fatalities.