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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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It could be too easy to cling to the GFS as a soothing alternative - pick delusion over despair...? sure.  However, the GFS routinely stretches the flow too prodigiously in the mid and extended range, to the extent where it can't be trusted.  In this case, it's bias could very well be promoting too much easterly positions of all features.

GFS or Euro aside, all these guidances conserve and blow up and/or damp out, theor own bias'/creations, out in time. Part of the technological charge is to create models that don't do that -

The Euro on the other hands - though in a relative sense ... not as egregiously - carries on oppositely as a longer termed tendency.  If you click back and forth between D6 and 7 from not 00z, but 12z yesterday's run, just take a look from orbit at the general appeal of that over-arcing flow, between the west coast and Chicago's appr latitude; it somehow, for no apparent geophysical reason, slumps the entire geopotential medium some 6 to 10 DM ...wholescale.  That suspicious, and likely erroneous collapsing 24 hour "correction" ...than gets conserved running out through the end of the run with all kinds of troughing mechanics in the western OV. 

So what we have here - it appears to me - are two models going crazy with there own bias types beyond D 5-ish ( maybe 4 ).  Probably ..its endemic to a zonal flow and more at 'low' amplitude PNA that causes that.  In a low wave counted 'laminar' flow, that sort of exposes the vanilla tendencies of the models, is my hunch.  Because the 00z GFS's solutions stretch credibility...where the Euro ends up with an inferno at 850 over top of a Miller B ?  mm... 

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Nice stretching of the 5H vorticity now even on the GFS which had left behind consolidated energy earlier. This stretching induces lift along a long axis well into cold air. At this early stage I would expect a 3 to 6 snow with the potential for more for the majority of SNE. Some SE coastal areas may be warm at the surface for a while to slow accumulations. Fine tune as time dwindles. 

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice stretching of the 5H vorticity now even on the GFS which had left behind consolidated energy earlier. This stretching induces lift along a long axis well into cold air. At this early stage I would expect a 3 to 6 snow with the potential for more for the majority of SNE. Some SE coastal areas may be warm at the surface for a while to slow accumulations. Fine tune as time dwindles. 

Agree . Violently so

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Even for the screw zone up here...great December so far.  Lots of cold, feel of winter, diamond dust last night and shimmering snow everywhere.  Will lose the field snow mon-tues but not the woods.  Then back into a decent pattern...not great but doesn't seem like a disastorous pattern is looming unless I'm missing something.  An average pattern is good for many of us, maybe not so much for NYC and south.

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Regarding the late Tuesday night early Wednesday morning deal....looks like 1-3/2-4 type of deal for now.

Regarding the long range....eps is actually slightly improved at the end of the run but pacific is still suboptimal.  I don’t see how we can avoid a relaxation that may last as long as 5 days before we bring winter back in.

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Not a good teleconnector layout out for winter enthusiasts by the GEFs  cluster.

Not sure what the EPS derivatives look like, but both the CDC and CPC agencies which base their numbers on said cluster, flip hobbies until further notice.  

Right out through the pooch screwed Christmas weather ass bangin' Holiday, too

Hopefully...the EPS is different ;) and can offer some semblance of a salvation compared to the above despair.  Otherwise, seek entertainment ( and for some, 'elation' joy circuitry ) elsewhere.

 

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