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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Probably in the overwhelming minority with this ...buut, I find right now through late Monday fascinating, actually.

Many of these backyard station obs were -5 to +10 F for low temperatures this morning, across the pan-wide region of interior SNE, and these same locations could be 50 to 60F late afternoon on Monday, ...cloud/showery saturation depending...  Still, even in the muted version, we go from this to that with essentially, ZERO active weather, other than the sensible temperature change.

It's one of those deals where the whole column/air mass up and bodily moves away, en masse, such that in fewer to no points within are there unbalanced soundings.  I.e, no advection of warmth.  That's an under-the-radar notability about this synopsis early this week, to go that far in a 24 to 30 hour change with so little advection.  

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Let’s see.. you said that about the first week, the second week, the third week, had AN month for Dec.. Sooner or later it might happen. Or it might not? I’ll continue riding HM ideas till I can’t 

Yeah I had AN like a month ago. I never had torch,  but I did say moderation and that’s what we wiLL have. Looks good. The AN December is trickier.

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I don’t care what it’s called. I care about forecasting it. It’s a follow up s/W so looks ana to me. 

Heh, ... just between me and you and everyone I'm about to piss off with this statement, the argument against an ANA probably has a psycho-babble motivation, underpinning.  In this rendition of group think .. .people don't want to admit that it is ANA, because "ANA" tends/reputation toward poor verify/no verification - and we can't have that.  So the vehemency in semantic pop-cycle head-ache takes it's natural form.  Ha ha ha.  Can't get reality to change?  Attack what we call it instead - hey... I'm good wid dhat -

Seriously, I don't care what anyone wants to dink around with in naming waste of time either... I see what you are seeing... a front with sharp 850 to SFC regression of temp exceeding our longitude, with a very strong mid level wind max passing well west ...on top/over top of the elevated frontal slope - QBF between it, and the front's leading edge, is quite theoretically acceptable.

 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Intact 


GFS shows another coastal system moving up from the south Friday,
spreading precipitation into Southern New England with continues
into Saturday.  The ECMWF is slower with the coastal system, moving
precipitation ashore on Saturday. GFS temperatures are borderline,
with potential for both rain and snow. The ECMWF temperature show
predominently rain. Expect a mix of precipitation on one or both
of the days, but with low confidence.

What did the FV3 have?

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The other aspect about that mid-week, post cold frontal upglide, because there is unbalance hydrostatic forcing that we can't on god's green Earth be so impudent as to call "ANA" ... event , is that suppose a rendition such as the GFS:

I'd go ahead and assume that the spatial coverage where that is actually reaching the ground is ~ the eastern 1/2.  Otherwise, that's virga with an amazing sunset spectacle.

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