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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Funny how what was modeled as a massive screamer 2 Days ago for next weekend is now a full on miller A coastal . Not much cold air, but you can see how mixed precipitation could be in the mix. So we lose all our pack the next couple days up to NH, but we gain it right back on Wednesday and even if next weekend is 30’s mix/rain.. the new pack would stay intact and with cold pattern thru holidays, virtually ensure a white Xmas.

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Intact 

GFS shows another coastal system moving up from the south Friday,
spreading precipitation into Southern New England with continues
into Saturday.  The ECMWF is slower with the coastal system, moving
precipitation ashore on Saturday. GFS temperatures are borderline,
with potential for both rain and snow. The ECMWF temperature show
predominently rain. Expect a mix of precipitation on one or both
of the days, but with low confidence.
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35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Intact 


GFS shows another coastal system moving up from the south Friday,
spreading precipitation into Southern New England with continues
into Saturday.  The ECMWF is slower with the coastal system, moving
precipitation ashore on Saturday. GFS temperatures are borderline,
with potential for both rain and snow. The ECMWF temperature show
predominently rain. Expect a mix of precipitation on one or both
of the days, but with low confidence.

 

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Funny how what was modeled as a massive screamer 2 Days ago for next weekend is now a full on miller A coastal . Not much cold air, but you can see how mixed precipitation could be in the mix. So we lose all our pack the next couple days up to NH, but we gain it right back on Wednesday and even if next weekend is 30’s mix/rain.. the new pack would stay intact and with cold pattern thru holidays, virtually ensure a white Xmas.

 

Sounds pretty Grinchy to me.

image.png.3e35179408f5bb24b66e7a4b499d5f6b.png

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Funny how what was modeled as a massive screamer 2 Days ago for next weekend is now a full on miller A coastal . Not much cold air, but you can see how mixed precipitation could be in the mix. So we lose all our pack the next couple days up to NH, but we gain it right back on Wednesday and even if next weekend is 30’s mix/rain.. the new pack would stay intact and with cold pattern thru holidays, virtually ensure a white Xmas.

This is why you dont trust long range models.

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Well... call it what one wants, the cold front out paces the trough, and behind the cold front, there are mid level velocities over a large swath exceeding 100 kts back over PA/NY and S. Ontario - that is going to excite a restoring flow that pulls 700 mb air up the elevated frontal slope, where ever the front is east of that region - that is causing the models to break out QPF on the western/lee-side of the frontal passage. 

But I haven't seen any overnight runs yet ... just sayn'

 

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well... call it what one wants, the cold front out paces the trough, and behind the cold front, there are mid level velocities over a large swath exceeding 100 kts back over PA/NY and S. Ontario - that is going to excite a restoring flow that pulls 700 mb air up the elevated frontal slope, where ever the front is east of that region - that is causing the models to break out QPF on the western/lee-side of the frontal passage. 

But I haven't seen any overnight runs yet ... just sayn'

 

Yeah I don’t care what it’s called. I care about forecasting it. It’s a follow up s/W so looks ana to me. 

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