STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 The early next week storm has trended weaker and weaker as the primary cuts across Michigan as higher and higher pressures. Doesn't mean that much but was interesting for me to see, if we had any decently placed high this would probably have triple pointed us nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 7, 2019 Author Share Posted December 7, 2019 32 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: I think we are very much aware. Expectations are generally low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Still time, just needs to trend quickly. Slopes stay open and NH border keeps snow OTG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 7, 2019 Author Share Posted December 7, 2019 plenty of ways to cut even further west than it showed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 EPS is kind of meh from here on out. There might be some opportunities, but overall I didn’t see the look as all that wintry. 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Sitting here at a local CT mtn having some cocktails at the lodge to numb what Scoot just posted. They are blowing snow. Me thinks they aren’t aware of the incoming warmth/rain.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 You guys lol. Nobody said it was bad. I just think it needs work. Jesus. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You guys lol. Nobody said it was bad. I just think it needs work. Jesus. Does it show anything for anal? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You guys lol. Nobody said it was bad. I just think it needs work. Jesus. You post those things for giggles than come back and say "ooo you guys" lol that entertainment must beat changing diapers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 What's with the surface thermals on the American models vs the Euro for 12z tomorrow? GFS has 24ºF and the NAM 26ºF for Boston, while the Euro has 4ºF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: You post those things for giggles than come back and say "ooo you guys" lol that entertainment must beat changing diapers Read what I posted. I didn’t say 2011 was coming. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Read what I posted. I didn’t say 2011 was coming. we know you posted tea leaves, nobody really reacted ... and then you said "ooohh c'mon guys' like you were waiting to say that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 NAM looks like it would have been good 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 58 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: NAM looks like it would have been good It could of been somebody... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Next weekend blows. No cold air to work with even if it doesn’t cut into Michigan. Cold rain at the Rockefeller tree for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 We get the low offshore next weekend and a junk airmass over us, Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: We get the low offshore next weekend and a junk airmass over us, Perfect. Dentrite can't take much more of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 14 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: we know you posted tea leaves, nobody really reacted ... and then you said "ooohh c'mon guys' like you were waiting to say that lol The pacific is in flux so it’s not ideal. But there were times on the ensembles that looked to offer some shots. I don’t know how much more clearer I can be. This is the EPS I’m referring to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 30 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: NAM looks like it would have been good And icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Mm... tacitly observing the posting content the last three days since I lost interest in this week... I can only say that I think it's been over assessed by interpretation. So, it may be persistent, but there's a collective over clocking of what it may mean. > 50 % of the QPF mass in most ANA deals ends up being virga, particularly on the western/northern peripheries of smear. The models overdo these things, and surface realization in the cold air side is often evaporating - the previous model runs looked like moderate rain --> light mix ending as flurries based upon experience. It doesn't seem like the average poster is really aware of that sort of nuance. That said, this GGEM run decides to go prodigious enough to overcome that ... heh, we'll see. It’s not anafrontal as depicted by the strongest Euro and Ggem runs, the frontal boundary is a hundred miles offshore. It’s a SW riding the boundary causing converging air to rise and precipitate. I mean Ocean State wx explained this but several posters just skipped over it. 3 hours ago, OceanStWx said: It's probably too broad a term around here, because you're right there is a difference between cold air trying to undercut the exiting precip and a follow-up wave trying to expand precip back to the NW along a stalled baroclinic zone. The latter is much more likely to produce something you need to shovel than the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: It’s not anafrontal as depicted by the strongest Euro and Ggem runs, the frontal boundary is a hundred miles offshore. It’s a SW riding the boundary causing converging air to rise and precipitate. I mean Ocean State wx explained this but several posters just skipped over it. 3 hours ago, OceanStWx said: It's probably too broad a term around here, because you're right there is a difference between cold air trying to undercut the exiting precip and a follow-up wave trying to expand precip back to the NW along a stalled baroclinic zone. The latter is much more likely to produce something you need to shovel than the former. I read that and I became interested in taking a closer look at this This is not the typical anafrontal which this event had been “mid-mentioned “ 50x in here. This actually HAS a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I read that and I became interested in taking a closer look at this This is not the typical anafrontal which this event had been “mid-mentioned “ 50x in here. This actually HAS a chance Some look at color maps see rain on one side and snow on the other and define as anafrontal but it’s not this time. Maybe it fails but it wouldn’t be because of Virga or NW drying winds. It would because either the SW failed to materialize or it generated insufficient lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: And icon GFS looks a little better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: GFS looks a little better It’s marginally improved ...you can also see it in the 7H relative humidity fields plenty of time and pike south wouldn’t take much as hr 84 was almost a head fake N before pushing east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 How great would it be if this happened? 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 24 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I read that and I became interested in taking a closer look at this This is not the typical anafrontal which this event had been “mid-mentioned “ 50x in here. This actually HAS a chance I'll bet against a wave within a few days of frontal passage (anafrontal) producing much. You and Steve let me know how much you get. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 End of eps run seems to be cooking up the grinch period nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll bet against a wave within a few days of frontal passage (anafrontal) producing much. You and Steve let me know how much you get. Over the last 15 years, I wonder how many anafronts have actually produced? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'll bet against a wave within a few days of frontal passage (anafrontal) producing much. You and Steve let me know how much you get. Pretty weak response Ray. History is loaded with waves within days of frontal passage. I realize it's not the barnstorm storms that you seek but to dismiss just cuz is Methodologically unsound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: End of eps run seems to be cooking up the grinch period nicely Lol...can’t seem to escape that. Except in 17 when it snowed Xmas early morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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