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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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It is very typical GFS behavior to lose a system at day 4.5. I would imagine it will trend back to a Euro solution. Huge height falls and the surface getting colder has to be watched closely. This can be a perfect track for initial WAA snow, flip to mix and then a rapid flip back to snow if mid levels crash as well. Very dependent on 5H capture position. Hopefully this is the first of many bowling balls we see this winter.

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3 hours ago, weathafella said:

11-15 reloading on all guidance.

 It’s probably BS though.  As a couple of those Twitter Mets have been saying (minus HM who has been very much on the cold train).  Those recent flips back to a better pattern post day 10 on the EPS are likely not accurate if the MJO goes into 3-4-5 though if it’s a muted wave and the AO/NAO are negative perhaps it won’t be a shutout pattern 

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