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December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread


AMZ8990
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14 minutes ago, tennvolfan said:

 I’ve noticed an overall uptick in late winter events around here......Pre 2000, I would never have believed that late winter would produce without producing in January- but it appears it’s more likely now. I can’t find any records in this area that late winter events happened after nothing earlier. Maybe it’s a new precedent in this late phase positive AMO. I think the AMO needs to flip to see where the cards fall. We are nearly 25 years into the positive phase so it’s time is limited.

 

No doubt that it seems late winter has been producing better than mid winter for the last decade or so. Maybe the lengthening wavelengths negate whatever pattern/climate problems or bad luck we've had in the heart of winter. I was mostly lamenting that 13-14 and 14-15 had the potential to bust the area out of the long term snow drought. Nashville is way overdue a 20"+ year, or at least a couple of 15" years in a row. You can't convince me that at least some of it isn't bad luck because places in all directions have had some big years in the last decade.

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Seeing this weekends system dwindle away has been tough, but I am more than happy to make it back to back trips if next weekends storm can trend well. Heck, some of the looks I am seeing on both the GFS and Euro would not take a lot of tweaking to get my home state in on some action. I have plenty of travel miles saved up, so I will stay tuned.

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1 hour ago, weathertree4u said:

Could February make us forget about the horrors of December and January? 

LOL.  Man, it would have to be an awesome pattern to move an overall D- pattern into the A column.  So many of these LR patterns have withered away to nothing.  That has been a trend all winter.  But I like Boone’s optimism.  He has been doing this for a while.  For now, I am going to enjoy the blue being on the correct side of the continent on recent ensemble runs, but w one eye over my shoulder.   

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18z GEFS snow mean that @John1122 mentioned.  It is a bit of an outlier, but not sure I have seen the GEFS this strong in some time.  Also, the GEFS has the least coldest look of all of the ensembles, but was still better than 12z.  As @Daniel Boone mentioned, heights are building in the general vicinity of Greenland.  IF that happens, that would allow the cold to finally be blocked and held in NA.  Long way to go, but we are going to enjoy each run.

Screen Shot 2020-01-22 at 7.19.05 PM.png

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29 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

@Mr. Kevin

There is a conversation about that here (I'm baroowoofr):

https://southernwx.com/community/threads/january-2020-operation-thaw-alaska.663/page-136#post-232967

 

Sadly, I have had three 10% beers now and am beyond further cogent answers ATT.

Also see:

 

I'm Mr. Golf over there lol. I haven't been there in a while though. 

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