JakkelWx Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 18z GFS is a partial phase this time for the 22nd storm. High moves out a little too early + it's only a partial phase so its pretty much all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 GEFS again showing a PAC improvement toward the end of the run. Out there in fantasy land but hoping we can make this a trend....Building some serious cold in NW Canada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted December 15, 2019 Share Posted December 15, 2019 Does anyone know where the mjo is located currently? Dr. Roundy told me there are two areas of convection, one in the IO and in the Pacific. I would think we want the IOD to weaken some. That imo is hurting the mjo progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 27 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said: Does anyone know where the mjo is located currently? Dr. Roundy told me there are two areas of convection, one in the IO and in the Pacific. I would think we want the IOD to weaken some. That imo is hurting the mjo progression. The models all seem to think it is in the Indian Ocean right now, right on the border between zones 2 and 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 41 minutes ago, poolz1 said: GEFS again showing a PAC improvement toward the end of the run. Out there in fantasy land but hoping we can make this a trend....Building some serious cold in NW Canada. If correct, will be interesting tracking that serious cold for mid Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, cbmclean said: The models all seem to think it is in the Indian Ocean right now, right on the border between zones 2 and 3. As mentioned previously, a few mets believe the +IOD will weaken. Actually, it has started to weaken, hopefully that trend continues and the caveat is the lag period needed to wash out the residual atmospheric effects of the record + IOD takes some time. I have not heard anyone yet venturing an estimate on when that will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Link to weekly MJO discussion. New one should be out tomorrow. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 11 minutes ago, frd said: If correct, will be interesting tracking that serious cold for mid Jan. I think we are heading there just dont know when....maybe we have some clarity in about a week when we see what the MJO wave will do. Also, consider the source (GEFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 hour ago, poolz1 said: GEFS again showing a PAC improvement toward the end of the run. Out there in fantasy land but hoping we can make this a trend....Building some serious cold in NW Canada. The epo ridge is our fastest way out of the crappy period coming up. We can work with the repeating "san diego trough" if we can get some cold to build in nw canada. The atl looks workable start to finish on all guidance. We don't need a perfect pac but it no doubt needs to improve considerably before we start getting chances again. A ridge somewhere/anywhere north of say...San Fran would work. Split flow and a source of even just normal continental air is workable. Especially late Dec through mid Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 We need a new thread. Long range takes us to January now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: We need a new thread. Long range takes us to January now. Start us..need some new mojo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, poolz1 said: I think we are heading there just dont know when....maybe we have some clarity in about a week when we see what the MJO wave will do. Also, consider the source (GEFS) Good point about sources. I know various models have different ideas about the MJO progression. Some on the colder side, other warmer. I believe the ECM depiction might be the warmer phase(s). Meanwhile we have a vortex strengthening event taking place. The vortex normally fluctuates in strength, and I believe this is the time of the year when it is the strongest. I still prefer it to be weaker honestly. Also, the precursor pattern pattern that weakened it after the last ramp up , well, I am not so sure we get a healthy attack going on any time soon. I hear things, but nothing very firm. The seasonal models, as I know, called for the vortex to be on the stronger side and remain so, however that does not mean a weakening vortex can not happen in Jan. Even a SSWE can still occur later in the season, including vortex elongations, and displacement events. A lot to keep up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 @frd What's interesting is the pattern depicted by the GEFS toward the end of the run is what you would expect to see as we approach a phase 8. Yet, the EPS is not too far from the GEFS... just a few days behind schedule. Not what you would expect to see as we approach a phase 6. Regarding the strat, i dont know what to think the future might hold. One common theme this season has been for a more bottom up disruption and that has worked in our favor a few times. The SPV is forecasted to be strong and I think these strat guys focus on that. Using the LR Euro just as an example...the bottom up disruption looks to continue and that's all we need for snow and cold potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, poolz1 said: One common theme this season has been for a more bottom up disruption and that has worked in our favor a few times. Even though we have not had any significant snowfall in the Dc and Baltimore areas so far, it does seem the HL have been friendly and any vortex elongations , at least cold air delivery-wise have benefited the NE part of the country, including us. I hope that continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 14 minutes ago, frd said: Even though we have not had any significant snowfall in the Dc and Baltimore areas so far, it does seem the HL have been friendly and any vortex elongations , at least cold air delivery-wise have benefited the NE part of the country, including us. I hope that continues. Fair enough...A lengthy stretch of bias cooler temps has indeed netted pertty much zero. Pretty meh as a whole. Give it 12 hours and hopefully we all have a nice 1-3" blanket of white! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Fair enough...A lengthy stretch of bias cooler temps has indeed netted pertty much zero. Pretty meh as a whole. Give it 12 hours and hopefully we all have a nice 1-3" blanket of white! Good luck out there tonight ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 6 isn’t a cold phase, but 7 and 8 are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 We are losing our gfs hecs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Just now, Ji said: We are losing our gfs hecs Welcome to 12 hours ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 LOL. Just a slight change in the gfs. Ns and ss switched places with strong shortwaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL. Just a slight change in the gfs. Ns and ss switched places with strong shortwaves. I think this is the most inconsistent I've seen models with a day 7 storm in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Overnight EPS now has ridging building into Alaska at roughly day 13 (eta: actually day 12). Have a decent -EPO by the end of the run. eta: GEFS is quicker establishing the -EPO then the EPS as we are seeing height builds around day 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Overnight EPS now has ridging building into Alaska at roughly day 13. Have a decent -EPO by the end of the run. eta: GEFS is quicker establishing the -EPO then the EPS as we are seeing height builds around day 9. That sounds like an improvement even from yesterday. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, BristowWx said: That sounds like an improvement even from yesterday. Baby steps. End of the run actually looks half decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 End of the run actually looks half decent. We lose the Atlantic though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Run over run changes from yesterday's EPS to tonight's shows we are seeing better height builds (starts day 13 or so) through the EPO region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Run over run changes from yesterday's EPS to tonight's shows we are seeing better height builds (starts day 13 or so) through the EPO region. Looks like we have a trend rather than just model noise now. Also looks like the TPV is re-positioning itself in a more favorable location. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 10 minutes ago, Ji said: 44 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: End of the run actually looks half decent. We lose the Atlantic though At least we should have some legit cold between the cutters. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 29 minutes ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: End of the run actually looks half decent. We lose the Atlantic though Not really sure we are. Not that I take too seriously anything the models throw at us in the extended when it comes to the NAO domain but some of the things I see suggest we don't. Though we do see +heights anomalies disappear I think that is more a function of the PV rotating down through the western portions of the NAO domain at that time. Where that eventually ends up will probably determine the NAO fate. We see that further to the east planted over Greenland, then yeah we have issues. But besides that, the fact that we are seeing lower heights planted in the 50/50 region suggesting troughieness through there suggests to me that something is holding that feature in place. And if you look in eastern Greenland we do see slight ridging there as well as higher heights to the south of it. Get this setup nearer in time we probably see more distinct ridging there as that feature doesn't get washed out from the smoothing the models tend to do in the extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Looks like we have a trend rather than just model noise now. Also looks like the TPV is re-positioning itself in a more favorable location. There is definitely a light showing at the end of the tunnel on both the GEFS and the EPS when it comes to our torchfest. I know I am the only one so call me stubborn or just a fool, but I still believe when all is said and told the east (especially mid-Atlantic and north) clocks in with around seasonable temps through the coming torch. Of course the GEFS has pretty much crapped in my bed its last few runs on this belief so there is that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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