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December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill
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1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

I think there was a good h5 last January right after New Years that was a rainer due to the MJO warm phases Grand Tour that was then in process.  I remember Bob sickened by it.

Yep... there are others but lets not go down memory lane from hell. Thing is, we don't get many big beautiful coastals. We can go years in between. And to have all  the pieces in place only to get rain is such a waste. I'm not getting any younger and there's only so many more chances left in my life.

Only 2 storms have gotten me really bad thoughp. Boxing day 2010 and March 2013. The march bust was on the heels of a horrible multi year stretch. That was high level torture of epic proportions

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Lol a lobe of the 50/50 vortex rotates down on top of it and suppresses it south of us. Slides east southeast from TN. That’s what happened last December. And I remember when guidance first started picking up on it at range we said “no way will that be right from this range”. 

I am not predicting anything like that again. Just laughing at the depiction. This was a good run imo. I’m happy. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Lol a lobe of the 50/50 vortex rotates down on top of it and suppresses it south of us. Slides east southeast from TN. That’s what happened last December. And I remember when guidance first started picking up on it at range we said “no way will that be right from this range”. 

I am not predicting anything like that again. Just laughing at the depiction. This was a good run imo. I’m happy. 

it would hurt alot more to have this kind of storm happened right before christmas. wow

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

the gfs is insistent on this storm...is any other model seeing this?

The euro is trending that way but still squashing the wave out west.  Maybe it’s real, maybe not. I’m just enjoying the ride.  The eps actually caved to the gfs progression though mostly. Historically a 60/40 compromise leaving 60 euro is good. This time it was 60/40 GFS it seems. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

The euro is trending that way but still squashing the wave out west.  Maybe it’s real, maybe not. I’m just enjoying the ride.  The eps actually caved to the gfs progression though mostly. Historically a 60/40 compromise leaving 60 euro is good. This time it was 60/40 GFS it seems. 

i remember 2 years ago--between christmas and new years...all the models had this huge cold overrunning big southern stream event...we got within 144 hours...and then poof..it all disappeared

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

i remember 2 years ago--between christmas and new years...all the models had this huge cold overrunning big southern stream event...we got within 144 hours...and then poof..it all disappeared

I remember that too. Posting the gfs sim satellite panels. Lol. That winter sucked in general. 

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

i remember 2 years ago--between christmas and new years...all the models had this huge cold overrunning big southern stream event...we got within 144 hours...and then poof..it all disappeared

I remember. We were in a Nina with no blocking.   Did you really buy that 72 hour 36” overrunning look?  Is there any prescedence for that?  We did get the cold though. It was a frigid week with a couple minor snows. Typical Nina cold pattern. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

I remember that too. Posting the gfs sim satellite panels. Lol. That winter sucked in general. 

I regret all of the time I stayed up for that. I remember DT was bullish on it until the Euro (?) finally dropped it. After Jan 4th we knew what type of winter we were in for.

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