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11/12/19 Tennessee Valley Early Winter Event


BlunderStorm
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Love it...Even if it doesn't work out, a winter thread in November is always a bonus!  Hey, if we can get a winter thread in April early next spring...that would give us six months of tracking!  

My expectations are low on this one.  I just want to see some snow showers.  Any accumulation is a total bonus this early, but I do like looking at snow accumulation maps though!  I may have to put in The Day After Tomorrow to get me fired up!!!  I like that movie, not going to lie.  My other favorite weather movies are Twister, 2012(more geology), and pretty much any Christmas movie with snow in it.  Christmas Vacation and Home Alone are pretty much awesome.  Yeah, I am a weather geek and I just can't help it.  In for later! Good luck to everyone on getting some early season snow.  Have to think folks about 2,000' are sitting pretty good on this one.

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Looks like the 00z NAM picked up totals compared to the 18z. It looked like it had some heavy bands setting up for an hour or two. I can see why the MRX is being cautious on their totals though, usually the cold chasing the moisture doesn't work out too well for the valley. Hopefully, it works out for a good chunk of the area this time though.

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I don't blame MRX either, this would be an unusual event to have that much post frontal snow, everything they mention in AFD is about rapid drying and maybe 2-3 hours of snowfall at best. I guess either the models will blink tomorrow or MRX may have to up totals just in case. I suspect ultimately a winter weather advisory for the Smokies/Wise/NE Mountains, SPS otherwise.

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28 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I don't blame MRX either, this would be an unusual event to have that much post frontal snow, everything they mention in AFD is about rapid drying and maybe 2-3 hours of snowfall at best. I guess either the models will blink tomorrow or MRX may have to up totals just in case. I suspect ultimately a winter weather advisory for the Smokies/Wise/NE Mountains, SPS otherwise.

So far on obs at the surface behind the front, the dry air is lagging behind by roughly by about 5-6 hrs. My thoughts right now are about an 1" accumulation for central valley north, plateau/foothills Smokies 1"-2", with areas above 1500' (valley/plateau/mtns) having the best chance to over perform.

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2 hours ago, John1122 said:

Kind of surprised, MRX went with a WWA for the Plateau, SWVA, and the mountains. I didn't think all those areas would land one and am surprised Knox to Tri didn't if the other areas were getting one.

They seem to be living off history on this one.  Most of the time that is a good move but every once and a while different happens.

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I think everyone is having the same doubts because there’s nothing to account for the extra precip in the valley and mods don’t handle micro climate enhancement all that well. Unless the environment post front is really unstable, I’m having a hard time seeing more than the typical 1” max on the ridge tops in the valley.


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IF what 

6 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

I think everyone is having the same doubts because there’s nothing to account for the extra precip in the valley and mods don’t handle micro climate enhancement all that well. Unless the environment post front is really unstable, I’m having a hard time seeing more than the typical 1” max on the ridge tops in the valley.


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 What you are saying is true if there is nothing to account for the extra precipitation in the Valley.  I was hoping that someone with more knowledge could explain what the models were seeing for the central Valley but if their is no explanation then MRX is making a good call.

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IF what 
 What you are saying is true if there is nothing to account for the extra precipitation in the Valley.  I was hoping that someone with more knowledge could explain what the models were seeing for the central Valley but if their is no explanation then MRX is making a good call.

I’m not your guy to explain what’s going on with the mods, this board has a lot more smarter people than me on here.


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IF what 

 What you are saying is true if there is nothing to account for the extra precipitation in the Valley.  I was hoping that someone with more knowledge could explain what the models were seeing for the central Valley but if their is no explanation then MRX is making a good call.

I think the models are anticipating the cold air to advect faster than we normally see and catching up to the heavier precip before it's done not just the super light stuff that would normally just be sprinkles behind the front. What MRX is counting on is that the cold air doesn't advect fast which is typical climo for these, also accounting for snow melting when it hits the ground as it begins as well.

 

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

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